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BuyMyLunchEconomist

What do people think about this analysis of NIO? [https://www.chinesealpha.com/2021/03/14/nio-why-is-the-price-going-down/](https://www.chinesealpha.com/2021/03/14/nio-why-is-the-price-going-down/)


CoffeeQID

Are NIO ADR shares connected to the Chinese market? Like if NIO on the Chinese exchange goes up 2%, does NIO ADR also go up 2% or are US investors only responsible for the movement of the ADR shares?


OkMathematician3889

NIO is not in the SEHK.


CoffeeQID

Wait, so NIO isn't traded domestically? Only in foreign markets?


OkMathematician3889

Correct


CoffeeQID

So if the only shares that exist are ADR shares, that means no investors have any voting rights?


OkMathematician3889

You can expect a green day tomorrow. XPEV is trading at $44 in Hong Kong right now. I hope you didn’t sell any NIO shares today.


CoffeeQID

That's great news.


droski2021

What’s nio hitting tomorrow?


CapableBet236

Moon


rp2012-blackthisout

Too many shit coins and shit stocks on the moon.


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jreask

Adios


noocioki

-3% today tomorrow -3% again to buy more shares!


Ochiva

That’s some wap


zatonik

wild how the 20 MA, 50 MA and 200 MA are like 20 cents of each other.


kids_eat_drugs

Lol the 5 shares I bought at 44 today are starting to print me some tendies 😂😂


R93reddit

https://cnevpost.com/2021/06/30/citi-raises-nio-price-target-to-72-from-58-3/


rasterroo

Posted a month ago https://www.reddit.com/r/Nio/comments/oafvp9/citi_increases_nio_price_target_from_5830_to_72/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

Old news.


R93reddit

Price upgrade 😁


ElectricLotus

Don't worry about the price action today - some people tried to sell deliveries and will probably buy back in and then sell earnings. It's like climbing through sand, 2 steps up, 1 step back. Sometimes theres 3-5 steps back, but years from now we will be looking at all the dunes we climbed and you won't be able to see this week's action on the chart at all.


kids_eat_drugs

Calm down y’all. The stock can’t always go up for goodness sake. It will breathe every once in a while and if you got extra cash laying around, then buy the dips. Otherwise, hold firmly and stop complaining


cochise2345

I get that stocks don’t always go up, but hell fire it’s been like it moves up then erases just about all gains obtained a few days before. Been in this since late jan. Holding a 43.54 average. Im numb to the rises and falls. I’ve gotten into the frame of mind that price targets and analysts ratings don’t mean anything. Just want it to get to 57.00 so i can at least be even( option plays that didn’t go as expected).


FuturiticSimplicity

Its been building higher lows and building support consolidating, perfectly normal. They aren't profitable yet, its a long term stock if you're trying to get rich in a day...


kids_eat_drugs

Good things take time, especially with all the craze this year has presented. I mean the overall stock market was booming going into 2021 since the pandemic, and IMO, NIO at the time was overpriced. Unfortunately, I bought into the hype as a rookie investor but held on and averaged down overtime. I'm sitting at the same average as you are as a matter of fact. NIO's share price ended up dropping below its ATH share price, which is scary, but it's has gone up since then a little under halfway of that drop (technically went up more but it's dropped recently). So why is it taking so freakin long to grow?? Well, there's a lot of factors. Of course, the stock market is just going crazy and you know fears of inflation / market overheating are there. But at the same time, the chip shortage loomed into existence towards the start of the year and is only now close to resolving. More on that, NIO also implied that this month's deliveries could have been higher had the flood in Germany not slowed production down. Add all that with the fact that Chinese companies overall have been on the hot seat this year due to the CCP scrutinizing / inspecting companies + fear of delisting, and there you go, that's why we've still not reached the $60s range. With time however, we're clearly seeing people realize that those last two Chinese stock related fears are (1) media FUD and (2) aren't particularly correlated with NIO given their company setup as well as them being backed up by the Chinese government. Slowly but steadily, we are seeing investors realize the potential NIO has, which has translated into a rise in share price as of recent.


ElectricLotus

Buying and holding NIO 101. She is a volatile beast, but we love her anyways.


kids_eat_drugs

Precisely!


Top_Big6467

No reason for share price to be down today. This should run up near $50.00ish before earnings. Good news will propel stock higher after earnings. All Aboard!!!


CapableBet236

Are people already selling bc earnings coming:D


FuturiticSimplicity

Consolidating building support maybe for another run into Friday maybe Monday.. NIO will be less volatile when they become profitable and its right around the corner, patience is key.


jerusalemspider

Volatility.


papichuloya

Why we going down smh


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Ok_Midnight2894

They exceeded their expectation of 7500 deliveries how is that bearish


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RegularNeedleworker8

Delivered hybrid vehicles in the case of Li and vehicles with lower margins in the case of Xpeng


papichuloya

This stock ever going to go places? Or will it alway be stuck in purgatory


wolfcrieswolf

EV's are the future. Simple statement of fact. If your definition of purgatory is on the scale of days or weeks, then yeah, we might be stuck there. But long term we have the potential to kill it.


ElectricLotus

Its moved a lot over the past 3 months, chill. If you aren't playing options or day trading with NIO, its tortoise vs haire mentality. Good things will come, but wait another 3-6 months for serious movement imo.


pantsinmyhands

I should have trimmed a bit yesterday at 46+. Lets see now.


Yazeed0227

puts OI percent decreased alot, just need some rising momentum and we should see green eod


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

It is getting cheaper low 30's that I would buy again.


JakesThoughts1

Anybody would buy in the low 30s again. I WAS buying in the low 30s back in April and May. You had plenty of time to do it then.


ElectricLotus

I borrowed from myself now to buy extra in April/May - I'm sure I'm not the only one


JakesThoughts1

Lol I did the same thing, I was sinking over half my checks in to the market in April and May. Unfortunately I’m broke now and have not bought anything in a month


JakesThoughts1

I normally just DCA, but I know when stuff gets way too oversold and I couldn’t pass that up


ElectricLotus

Same, I mostly DCA but I'm glad I bought (4-5x) extra during those major dips. I've invested some since then but not much. I picked up a few other good sales on discount too that have really ripped.


Yazeed0227

What the hell is happening lol, why is it dumping so massively


Serious-Education697

As usual NIO suffers from the other chinese stocks which are also red. After the delivery numbers it was obvious that some investors will try to dump the stock. Thats why many people yesterday tried to talk bad about NIO.


RegularNeedleworker8

Byddy is Chinese and is up


realinowijaya

Baba buying opportunity i think. Big company with a lot of potential


JakesThoughts1

Then go join a fucking baba subreddit. So damn annoyed of people in this NIO subreddit trying to always pump some other stock. I come here to talk about NIO


realinowijaya

Haha i have nio too, don’t worry. I just love chinese stock bro 😎


JakesThoughts1

Fair enough, but this is the 3rd comment already from you today saying to buy baba lmao.


ElectricLotus

Yeah I agree, this is a NIO sub, not a Chinese stock sub or (*Insert EV here*) sub. Mentioning SP movement correlation with other stocks is one thing, but keep it topical to NIO or be ready for downvotes.


CapableBet236

50 eow


adeitsch25

Not even close. This stock can rarely even have two green days in a row


Yazeed0227

Strap in boys, lets hope for lift-off


adeitsch25

🙈🙊🐵


realinowijaya

i bought baba and edu today 😁


gavinshouldbePM

Why u buying edu lol?


realinowijaya

Just give a try 😁


gavinshouldbePM

The new regulations make it literally uninvestible. I'd use any bounce to cut remaining any positions lol Baba I agree with tho (Not financial advice)


realinowijaya

Buy baba earning guys today 😁👍


DOKim_98

My yesterday guess was off, but i think today it will go up about 3-4% today.


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

This aged badly LOL hahaha


Yazeed0227

Doubtful, why do you think that?


DOKim_98

Byd went up like +10% yesterday and even today it didn't go down when all Chinese stock were 🐻 today. And I think July delivery number isn't that big for Nio. How much Nio went up yesterday? It wasn't enough for my calculations. So today it should go up.


Yazeed0227

Hmm let’s see, I do sure hope so.


Yazeed0227

red premarket= mooning today at open


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

No


spacedogyuri

You know what red premarket means boys… bullish.


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

That aged very badly hahah


FuturiticSimplicity

New retail investors probably shitting bricks with Li auto pre market after those record deliveries, lol. For future reference and to new investors; that's what it looks like when a company does a public offering, perfectly normal. NIO will get there eventually for you panic sellers out there. Nothing to worry about... buy the dippy sauce >:)


Illustrious-Bench-40

Any official statement about why the deleveries were so low this month?


wolfcrieswolf

Yeah, as said, they weren't really low. They were just lower than people on this sub hyped them to be. Still up 125% year-over-year, they met their own projection, and the chip shortage is definitely still in play. Plus, the inventory that was sent to Norway hasn't begun getting sold yet.


jerusalemspider

Twitter, too. People screaming „10.000“ without any lead as to why it should be that high. Comparison to XPENG and Li is so stupid it makes me angry.


KrypticRTS

Im not super well informed but when i look at the delivery numbers, they are a bit below the record high, not 'low'. When i look at past 3 years july numbers < june numbers, so that seems to be a pattern for whatever reason. When i look at August deliveries in the past 3 years they exceed july by alot. I dont see anything out of pattern myself and next month looks promising to me....


Illustrious-Bench-40

Yeah, I checked that as well and as far as I remember the deleveries in July 2019 were 30% up compared to the deleveries from June 2019. I'm just disappointed, I was expecting at least 9k deleveries..


KrypticRTS

June 2019= 1340 July 2019 = 837 They were down 38% If you compare it to this year, its solid


RaceLR

5 months out for ET7. I would guess that there are a good amount of NIO customers placing orders for ET7 and choosing to wait a few months for the sedan than go with the SUV. Like PS4 orders when PS5 is months away.


Puzzleheaded_Set_850

do you know how meny ET7 pre orders already?


RaceLR

I'm hoping that the earnings report next week will mention it. If I recall correctly, last earnings didn't disclosed how many ET7 pre-orders either.


Illustrious-Bench-40

Hmmm, true, that actually makes a lot of sense


NioCryptoXD

So low?? Sure


Illustrious-Bench-40

Well, li and XPEV beat us and we were lower than previous month even though there were 31 days this month


tusamdoma

I am thinking something about new factory, first phase should be over in less than half year, so capacity all together is 1 300 000 annualy. If we going to have this year cca 100 000 anualy that means next year yoy 1300% or? How do you see this?


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

No. SUV´s in 2022 will be around 150-160k ET7 around 50-65k ES7 if real starts June maybe 20-30k sales. Thats the most they will do. ​ So YOY will be good around 220 - 255k. If they really start the sub-brand in June they could hit 300k in 2022 which would be crazy...


7Habits_

Are u back in ?


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

No yet. But sold Square 8,4% one day. Nio will going down more than back in. But also looking into Baozun, Rolls royce and Blue Prism.


ComprehensiveRice427

Tencent crash today may drag it down. Let’s hope results are a killer tomorrow.


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

11th of august...


ComprehensiveRice427

Even better then


patrickWR95

Are the July deliveries a disappointment?


Rezz1126

No, they beat Deutsche banks expectations. Retailers just have unrealistic expectations. Shortage because of flood in Germany, plus they sending cars to Norway thats not counted in.


J_powell_ate_my_asss

A bit, but I think it’s due to them exporting to Norway


HaNdICaPPEd_Stocks

There were good. But they need to ramp it up now. They need to do close to 9k in August and 9k+ in Sep... If they Miss growth slows down already..


rp2012-blackthisout

I thought so. People will make excuses on why "NiO tO tHe MooN!" but I'm more focused on earnings report. Deliveries isn't the whole picture.


SilverDragonfly6794

Honestly, I don't think they were that disappointing. Less than 100 fewer than their previous record month (June 2021). They've already sold more than 5000 more than all of 2020, and there's still 5 months left. This isn't a 'NIO too the moon' comment, but I think some people are being overly pessimistic. Not a great month, but not all doom and gloom people are making it out to be imo.


rp2012-blackthisout

I don't think it's doom and gloom unless we see something like 5k next month. But I'm also not going to ignore the fact that this year hasn't been growing as much as last year. Last year they started around 1500 sales per month and finishing out the year over 7k. Since then it's been 7k-8k. Not a monster growth stock. I'm worried they can be capped at 7-8k for multiple reasons including they have to use another companies factory to build.


SilverDragonfly6794

But surely big part of the reason as to why the sales haven't kept growing is due to the chip shortage? Now that that seems to be easing up, I imagine we'll start seeing the numbers get higher and higher. I don't know whether the 7-8k monthly limit at the moment is due to demand, or if that's their maximum number they can produce in the factory? Once the NEO Park is open (end of 2022?) I imagine the numbers will see quite a significant jump, especially with them being operational in Norway, and potentially other European countries (Germany rumoured to be the next one after Norway).


rp2012-blackthisout

I am not a fan of the 'chip shortage' excuse anymore. Tesla did over 10000 deliveries in China. Li Auto and Xpeng both had record months. If Nio had chip shortage issues they would have too. I believe Xpeng had a factory destroyed by the floods.


SilverDragonfly6794

Why not? You're talking growth. How did the other companies growth compare to NIOs during this time? NIO had a record month in June. I think the chip shortages affected all of those companies, and of course Tesla is going to sell more vehicles, but I'm pretty sure NIO has closed the gap considerably.


rp2012-blackthisout

Right. All those companies were affected by chip shortages but were still able to pull record numbers. Somehow Nio didn't. All 3 also have something else in common. They own their own factories. They can speed up or slow down production. Nio, not so much.


SilverDragonfly6794

NIO literally had a record month with June this year, and they've already sold about 5000 more than last year's total and there's still 5 months left. NIO will have a big increase in production capability once the NEO Park is open and operational.


dangolord420

Hopefully China COVID lockdown doesn't cause NIO to fall. Regardless, I'll buy the dip


Yazeed0227

I think China would do anything in its power to minimise any negative impacts on Chinese stocks. Investor confidence is already shaky enough, they’re trying to strengthen it.


rp2012-blackthisout

Tell that to baba, didi, or tal stock owners. -edit- this post got downvoted then like 2hrs later news breaks that tencent went down 10% in HK today due to the Chinese gov.. lol. good times.


Yazeed0227

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/why-this-nio-analyst-is-raising-his-price-target-for-the-ev-maker-1030677606