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KinGpiNdaGreat

Anyone think that Nio selling $2b worth of shares will really hurt the stock price ?


thedreamcarrier

A drop from 41$ to 37$ is not considered a hurt?


save_castlewarzz

Who said it's not dropping more😂😂😂✌


thedreamcarrier

Then short it?


save_castlewarzz

im more of a long type of trader. if I wanted to short something, theres many many other better oppurtunities for a short.


macro-2018

when do you think Nio will be able to finish the $2b selling?


save_castlewarzz

When it gets to 30 and I buy


nardawggggg

Why did xpeng do so much better today than nio


OkWelcome8895

They aren’t selling 2b worth of shares bit by bit


nardawggggg

Nio is selling those shares out of their unsold part


OkWelcome8895

They are still selling the shares- which creates downward pressure on the price. Wether it’s sold or unsold part. The dilution doesn’t matter as much as the volume of sell does. Think of it like masks when covid first started. Stores were cleaned out- people border and listed them on eBay for insane higher prices. Now their is a ton in inventory and masks are on clearance. Same with nio- it was at a point where it was climbing and the company decided to pull 2billion worth out of the back storage room. Now everyone selling on ebay(stock exchange) has to compete with the store (nio) clearancing out its shares. Eventually the market will get back to an equilibrium but until then it’s going to be tough to get serious momentum up unless some great news comes out to increase the buy demand


nardawggggg

I see. Good point


nardawggggg

I see. Good point


chetoman1

No, no, no, and no. What does that even mean? Their “unsold part” They said they would be offering 2B worth of ADR’s at market price. That means they are diluting the shares by adding more, and creating sell pressure by…… you know selling. End of story.


macro-2018

Google map says that the Norway Nio House is opening on Oct 1st. I thought it's supposed to open on Sep 23rd, no?


Apprehensive-Ask7241

https://youtu.be/tSqAZl8FL94


MrstockMcstocky

I’m happy with the price today , hoping for a slow steady rise next week , back into the 40s we go ✌️


djstyles21

I'll take a green day any day.


cupcee

Where did all this buying volume at the end of the day come from lol.


FuturiticSimplicity

Seekingalpha and Investorplace posted some positive feedback on NIO today, I'm thinking good things ahead for October if NIO meets delivery expectations. Just added 30 shares at 37.21, im confident in my purchase.


OkWelcome8895

That was posted way before the last hour- before the trading day even started. The buy volume in the last hour was as option traders closed out and rolled their positions. It’s triple witching day which normally means a lot of volume last hour.


THEAPETITANISHERE

I’m going to sell my 665 shares that I bought at an average of $49 and just invest it all into FAANG stocks. NIO is trash now. Xpeng is better!


Hcharles4

Thanks for the notice


Right_Neat_2365

SP movements in the short term is not a good indicator of the quality of the stock. But if you think fundamentals have changed then go ahead and sell.


Conscious-Wonder-928

😂 😂 😂 This guy is holding for a few months, not a few years.


salahy1987

I currently own 2600 shares of Nio plus some January 2021 call options. As long as Nio delivers, we will be just fine longterm. We got to admit that September deliveries is crucial. 5k+ in August was such a blow that it is steering other investors toward Xpeng, Li, Lucid, etc. Silver lining is that the Chinese stock market has been on a downtrend since February and looking at KWEB etf (also BABA) , it looks like it finally hit some support and I would not be surprised if the reversal is happening already which will help stabilize Chinese stocks. NIO will still have to prove itself to push the SP higher.


chetoman1

I commented this in another post but I feel it’s worth sharing here. The analogy of Mr. Market: Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his. Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions, he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him. Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you. But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.” So in context of us…… Mr. Market is particularly foolish right now. He only sees the short sighted off puts of political influence and Evergrande mismanagement. It’s about beating the game with what it gives you.


worktogethernow

I think Mr. Market took his benzos at about 2:30pm.


chetoman1

Lol he did. Gotcha catch him while he’s irrational!


stocker1231

i guess it’s flat day today 😔😂


KoolhofDuty

Declining volume in Nio is not really surprising, it simply performed very unpredictable the past months and also didn't have large gains on good news. NIO needs bigger sale numbers to step up to its promises and current valuation. Until then, I predict a slow decline in stock price and volumes. Upside is that in Europe most car makers really take a bearing from chip shortage, so NIO is not the only brand having troubles delivering at the moment. Once the EV competitors such as Lordstown reach the phase of promise towards actual deliveries, I sincerely believe NIO also will become much wanted again, because then it will turn out how competitive and difficult it is to live up to all the promises. BTW, stepped in at 63 in January and finally am in the green again through day trading NIO, hopefully to prove that timing the market can beat time in the market.


thedreamcarrier

Overall the volume in most of the stocks is low, because its September and most people are trying to avoid trading in September, but the volume is also low, because of the share offering, everyone is waiting for it to pass, last year it was the same..


DiarmuidMurphy

September is a red month across the board. Always has been. October bounce to look forward to though.


KoolhofDuty

Could you explain that further, eg the share offering?


thedreamcarrier

They are currently dumping 50~m shares so that they can raise 2b dollars, noone would enter in a stock, if they know that so much shares are going to be sold and overall there many things that we don't know about the offering, we don't know why they are doing it, when they are doing it and if they are doing it all, once this passes and if the deliveries are not that bad, we should go up unless the q4 prospect is very bad, but as far as I have heard they are mantaning 95k cars for this year and 150k-200k cars next year


thedreamcarrier

Also if they share why they need 2b, the stock can go up, because noone knows why they are raising money when they have 7.5b in savings


Bulky-Cranberry6668

Hopefully they start purchasing ev startups and start the consolidating of the Chinese market.


KoolhofDuty

I understood its because of the delay in the Hong Kong ipo, since they projected the money earlier than available and therefore need to have a 'bridge' raise. Still, that doesn't explain where the money is needed for..


paulo401

Evergrande flash sales? Or other startup maybe? Or because HK didn't happen and they had planned something for the money wich didn't come. They cannot say why because there's for certain something been cooked on secret kitchen! It's my speculative theory. This is the problem, if they don't said it's because it's secret (and maybe good), or it's bad.. and if it's bad the 50M shares would be cheaper because all investor would try to sell too...


noocioki

We need to reborn.. To escape from downtrend mode!


zreo-tolorance

All I see is lower highs and lower lows pattern. 🥴


chetoman1

Been noticing that, especially on the 3 month chart. Usually when that happens to a company with pretty good fundamentals, it results in an amazing reversal once it finds the bottom. Question is where the fuck the bottom is lol


save_castlewarzz

I will buy at 30 and average down every 1 dollar😎😎😎


paulo401

I don't believe in 30, but maybe 34. The share has managed to remain at a level above 36, which shows the demand and its stability. Even at this time of negative trend.


save_castlewarzz

we will see, it already hit 31 when it dipped way back


paulo401

True, but for different reasons and different momentum.


Powerful_Mission_655

I got $40 calls for december... anyone think we will hit over $40 by then 😅


xUmbraFray

Depending on how early Nio day is, you should be able to catch some of the hype that builds leading up to it.


KoolhofDuty

Absolutely


CricketSimple2726

Definitely. NIO is projecting like 9kish+ deliveries per month for the rest of the year


zreo-tolorance

If they can deliver this 9k+ per month we might hit +50 EOY but if September is a miss , its gonna hurt , alot .


cupcee

Since NIO has already essentially "promised" the investors good delivery numbers for the rest of the year, if we don't hit them I think this thing is going to dump hard. More than already, that is.


thedreamcarrier

Is the promise confirmed in any way? I know about the leaked article, but that is not a legitimate conformation..


cupcee

Didn't they project in last delivery report like 8600 for September. Even if that's all they said, if in October it drops low again I think that's a very bearish signal


thedreamcarrier

They said 8600-9600,if there aren't any supply chain issues, but consider the fact that Toyota and general motors are suffering this month due to the chip shortage, I can not imagine that we are not suffering as well. However this month they will include the 300 cars they have sent in Norway and there are no floods, but unfortunately malaysian factories were closed again, whatever it is, I'm sure that the market has already priced in the chip shortage, if it wasn't we would be in low 30ies and XPEV in 20$


chetoman1

I will likely sell everything I have in NIO if they don’t even hit 7K this month. I was PISSED with last months numbers, and my growth stock ain’t growing lol.


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CricketSimple2726

Agreed. September is key


worktogethernow

I think we will see over 40 before the end of October. What is your break even?


Powerful_Mission_655

43.00


worktogethernow

Just to be clear: I don't know what I am talking about and this is not financial advice. This seems like an OK position. My guess is that you will make a small profit. My personal price target (also a guess) is now $70.00 for the end of the year. I think it will be sometime in early 2022 when component supply shortages are no longer limiting production. I seems unlikely, to me, to see a big move up until this happens.


thedreamcarrier

Really depends on the deliveries and the offering. If everything is okay we should see 60 EOY, but 70 is a hit much, maybe before nio day


liam147og147

Does the evergrande news effect Nio stock?


OpportunityKey9379

Maybe


[deleted]

Yes


KoolhofDuty

No


adeitsch25

What a shit stock.. cannot wait to pull out.


Right_Neat_2365

Can’t wait to buy your shares!


Hcharles4

X2


eshaje

Sell low buy high


eshaje

I guess nio will trade sideways forever


thedreamcarrier

Another day with almost no volume, kind of surprising considering next week is the Norway opening and the following week we have the deliveries..


stocker1231

wow it’s so painful to see lucid with 0 cars up 10%🤬😔and nio just keeping there head above the water 😂


Zebmike

Thats why I own both


Right_Neat_2365

lucid is a pump and dump play, whereas Nio is a long term investment.


OkWelcome8895

Seems to be a pretty flat day with triple witching.


Diligent_Ad4558

exhausting, how to learn not look into the stock everyday


lewmayers

Will always hold 🤙🏼🤙🏼🤙🏼


Thavid

How do you guys think the Chinese Evergrande drama is and will affect NIO stock?


Curious_Poet_592

Won’t affect sh!t. People will be begging for NIO battery swap station to be built near their real estate property.


Maleficent_Low_8056

Best thing to do is let the data tell you the answer. The Hang Seng Index is down about 5% this week. I'd imagine most of the decline is due to regulatory concerns. The Chinese GOVT. will want to see the extent of the haircuts that banks and other creditors can take before stepping in with a bail out. Game theory 101! So - that Evergrande story may have some room to play out. What is more troubling for me right now is the price action in NIO. NIO is making new lows while the Nasdaq is near highs. So any sell off in the Nasdaq is going to add fresh selling pressure to NIO. The key thing hurting NIO short term is the weak production numbers. Everything else is just noise.


nigelmahari

Thank you for ur thoughts, i think Nio next delivery number will blow up, if we divide the rest delivery number target of this year with the remaining months left, we should expect very high number in the upcoming months


Odinthedoge

No, you guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment expecting big delivery numbers amid a temporary supply chain shortage. Did you listen to the conference call? This entire board is focused on day to day week to week price action... This shouldint be titled investor discussion it should be called nio daily trading discussion.


OkWelcome8895

The big thing short term is will nio deliver on what was forecasted. It was a high target- if they do it shows they handled the supply issue well-and will create fair- if it doesn’t it makes last months negative surprise worse in that they are not able to set a reasonable forecast- this will be both a short term and long term concern- short term from supply -long term because of management ability. Could very easily be a disappointment- could also be a great number. Either way it will set up a short term over reaction and will need for dust to settle for long term moves


Odinthedoge

High target? They just lowered guidance slightly. They only need to deliver 6k per month to meet it, and they will likely exceed it imho. Just the level of pump hype on this forum seems manufactured.


OkWelcome8895

Nio delivered 7,931 July, 5,880 august. The revised their guidance for q3 down to 22,500-23,500. That means September is 8,689-9,689. Yes I think that is a high number after august and chip shortage. It puts them back on expected delivery’s around 9,000 per month. What numbers are you using for they only need to deliver 6k for September?


Odinthedoge

I was using the goal of 150,000 units total by end of 2021, they’ve sold 131,408 so far, so if they hit a conservative 6k per month in sept oct nov dec that’s 24,000 units


OkWelcome8895

Where did you get the 150k from? It’s much more reasonable than what they guided for 3rd quarter. I also think the high September forecast opens us up to a negative reaction- especially if they say 4th quarter will be less than 20k units.


Odinthedoge

Sorry I was going off memory of long term goals Nio had set way back for end of 2021, I just spent a few minutes digging around for the 150,000 unit number but didn't find anything to quote. They do expect to be producing 150,000 per year when they finish the additions to JAC. As for this September, yeah it looks like they have to hit 8,689 to meet the low end of their guidance. Perhaps they have a lot of the cars that were waiting for parts in august finished and those will give a bump to September deliveries. I wouldn't expect Nio to not meet guidance after lowering it, if so that would be a disappointment but I doubt they would purposefully do that. They should have a good idea of their capability to deliver those numbers and they have a history of under promise over deliver.


Maleficent_Low_8056

>The key thing hurting NIO short term is the weak production numbers u/Odinthedoge \- I agree with you. We are not going to see stellar production numbers IMO over the course of the next 12 months. Given all the new entrants to the EV space, it could potentially take years to resolve.


Odinthedoge

I was mostly talking to the guy thinking next month delivery numbers will "blow up"... Nio Just lowered guidance slightly, and people are still here pumping up this months delivery numbers, setting themselves up for disappointment. That's all.


nigelmahari

Why people downvoted smth like this, i think this is a genuine question and i'm curious on other people Thoughts too


ThetaForLife

All these idiots downvoting without thinking really worries me. NIO is a great company, but it has a lot of idiot “investors”.


PapitoMusk

I fuking love NIO so much! $60 EOY, I'm certain of it


mmwolftrader

Will stay at this range for life Poor me


TheNIOandTeslaBull

Right now with all things going on, is that really a bad thing?


SonnyX20

Yeah poor you. Go have a good hard cry and then man the fuck up. Go buy now and exit green eoy or just hold till 2022


PapitoMusk

NIO to the moon! Love NIO!


Aegeus666

today is the Witches’ friday ( the third friday of march, june, september and december) when both futures and options expire!!! it results in high volatilities in base actives ( stocks)


ThetaForLife

NIO 40+ next week, no doubt.


thedreamcarrier

Hopefully that picks up the volume


HHaannzzii

Haha how can you say it only can get better 🤣🤣 I can find a million things that can push the stock further down. Just wait an see when they do Hong Kong listening and dilute again, chips, covid, spare parts and more crackdown. Short time this is a mistake to buy. Long time maybe🤔 I think we should be happy with around 40 $ EOY. I hope I am wrong.


SnooPears3533

40 is still 8% better...


HHaannzzii

U are so right and we need to see it from the positive side ✅🏧😊


thedreamcarrier

Chips are already priced in the stock market and tesla is still up, nio is down because of the share offering, if you have not noticed we were very close to reversing the trend before the news came.. Once the offering is done, we will go back up


Curious_Poet_592

Will they announce offering is completed? Different offering so I thought no announcement.


thedreamcarrier

Well yeah they will announce it, it's a good catalyst, but they won't disclose how many shares they are selling everyday, overall there is a chance that they are not selling at all


HHaannzzii

After following the stock very close for a year I got to this conclusion that I trust it when I see it. Nobody can predict anything on this stock. It like a kangaroo on methamphetamine - mostly jumping down for the time being.


thedreamcarrier

Well noone wants to put his money in a company if there is a risk of someone selling 50~m shares, that's literally the average daily volume


HHaannzzii

People are hoping for the long term profit however hope is not an investment strategy and I regret buying all to many stocks in this company.


thedreamcarrier

Well, don't know what to tell you my guy. If you take a look at the charts, we are very close to the end of the downtrending channel, so we will ether fall deeper so that there will be room for more movement or we will break out, as I said previously we were reversing before the news offering, so maybe you will have the chance to get out of the stock soon


Odinthedoge

Nobody talks about fundamentals on this board its all price prediction trading garbage. If you like a company, buy and hold long.


Curious_Poet_592

Just wait for 2022 ET 7 neopark mass market ez hold ez retirement


HHaannzzii

Sorry I don't trust to much on TA as this don't cover lost trust do to crackdown, Covid, diluting etc. also there is a hidden agenda to talk bad about Nio for many political and economic reasons. Nio is a hard stock to predict just my opinion.


thedreamcarrier

Crackdown? The government literally came out and said that they will support the monopplisation of the EV companies.. They are literally doing the opposite of what they are doing to baba?


MrSocioloog

I'm back in! Now let's start the engine! We've tested and bounced off 36.6 a few times now. Now we found a floor, let's start looking for the ceiling. I think we already have all the bad news priced in. It can only go better.


Curious_Poet_592

NIO to the moon today!!


OvertheTop22

Are u sure about that.


Curious_Poet_592

Hell no 😂


OvertheTop22

Thats what i tought😂😂


thedreamcarrier

Does anyone know if the Malaysian plants have reopened?


Fit_Cauliflower_1271

Malaysia has recently started allowing companies who have had 100% of their employees vaccinated operate at 80% workforce. But I believe the semiconductor plants were closed due to an internal cluster. But this was some time ago, so if they’ve gotten the cluster under controlled they probably have reopened for some time now.


thedreamcarrier

I think I saw some articles saying that some plants were closed for a week this month, but I can find it.. BTW do you know, who is the Malaysian chip supplier for nio?


Fit_Cauliflower_1271

I believe it’s Bosch


Odinthedoge

Yes Bosch supplies them with components, Tesla is in the same boat Elon called out bosch specifically on their call.


Odinthedoge

If apple were to choose a Chinese supplier of ev skateboards for their apple car, who would they choose?


Odinthedoge

This got downvoted? Lol. Continue with your price predictions...