By - bamisbig
If it had happened 2 weeks before Midterms it definitely would have an effect. However the American electorate has the collective memory of a goldfish so I doubt it'll have that big of an impact. The people that will be most motivated by it were probably already planning on voting Democrat in midterms anyways.
I mean it's not like Democrats are known for being motivated to vote \*for\* anything
I think goldfish actually have pretty good memories
I’m gonna be honest, it’s going to be very hard for any huge event to have sway over voters unless it literally happens the month of the election. Voters are like that, for better or for worse.
Bave bro change your flair; it disgusts me. Communist suits you better.
I doubt it does. This conversation comes up every few months and nothing major ever happens.
I mean it would energize both sides and may energize religious voters to vote for republicans but you would also piss off a lot of voters so it’s hard to say.
Given that there's currently a large R advantage without Roe getting overturned so far, in a neutral environment, it getting overturned would result in a large D advantage. As a result, they'd probably cancel each other out. However, Dems are incompetent fools so I'd say overall, it would result in a net modest R advantage.
A large R advantage? 538's generic ballot poll is R+0.7 last I checked. That's pretty much even.
Sure, there's 11 months and a lot could change, but right now, I'd say the house margin will be around R+1.
Republicans winning the popular vote means a fairly large advantage in the house. Dems need like D+3 just to break even.
A) To estimate House bias based on gerrymandering, we need to know the median house seat. As there are a ton of house seats left to be drawn, we can't do that yet.
B) "Large Republican advantage" implies more than a 1-point victory.
Democrats actually need a D+8-10 in this environment to keep the house.
Republicans winning the popular vote is super bad for them
Dems are incompetent fools? Which party controls both houses of Congress and beat an incumbent president again?
only because of covid and even then, their senate majority has led them to be able to pass almost none of their desired bills
The only reason that happened was cuz of COVID and even, those majorities are super-slim. Plus, they also lost a VA gov race that should've been extremely easy to win. Not to mention they fucked up so bad New Jersey got close.
Trump would’ve lost without COVID.
Ok, let's run through Lichtman's Keys and see what'll happen without COVID (some assuming will be done and remember, 6 false keys for the incumbent to lose):
1. Midterm gains: False (no change)
2. No primary contest: True (no change)
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: True (no change)
4. No third party: True (no change)
5. Strong short-term economy: True (change from false). Explanation: No COVID, no recession, economy doesn't collapse
6. Strong long-term economy: True (change from false). Explanation: Same as previous.
7. Major policy change: True (no change)
8. No social unrest: False (no change)
9. No scandal: False (no change)
10. No foreign/military failure: True (no change)
11. Major foreign/military success: False (no change)
12. Charismatic incumbent: False (no change)
13. Uncharismatic challenger: Unknown, leaning towards False (no change). Explanation: Charisma is difficult to quantify. Plus, it's possible Dems would've nominated someone else had COVID not happened. Biden is not charismatic, but it's hard to know who is. Buttigieg probably had the most charisma of the 2020 field, but I'm not sure if he would satisfy this key. Maybe another candidate with charisma would've ran in this case, I don't know know. However, as a result of this lack of a known, I will count it as "False (no change)".
All in all, 5 false keys. Not enough. Unless Democrats got someone charismatic to run, Trump would've been re-elected had it not been for COVID.
The Democrats won because Trump is even more of an incompetent fool than they are. If Trump had handled covid well, or even just decently, he'd probably have seen a popularity spike. Leaders who are seen as handling a crisis well get rewarded (just look at Bush's first term), and given that the tipping point was only D+0.6, it wouldn't take much of a crisis bump to put him over the top.
They cant pass their bills, even if they are good ones
Cause the senate is basicly 52-48 for the republicans in those bills(manchin and sinema)
They’ve already passed the stimulus bill earlier this year and infrastructure.
They Need more
The case is this month, correct? In that case, I suspect that voters will have moved on to other issues by then.
??? hardly, if it’s overturned that’s like a huge issue that will turn people to the democrats even months later
But that Modest D advantage just makes the environment a little bit better for Rs compared to a lot better from 2020. It’ll only help in the suburbs while makes no difference in rural areas but that’s what matters
No affect really. Roe V Wade would have been the number 1 issue for the past 10-50 years give or take a few hot issue months here and there. However right now I think it would be lucky to rank 3rd or 4th considering everything else going on and the battle lines have already been drawn on the issues ahead of it. And that would be if the decision happened right now. It will galvanize D support more than R, but I don't see it actually swinging votes right now.
No one ever thought it would be overturned until Barret was seated. If that had been a real possiblity, then it would have been.
I'm conflicted. on one end, this is a massive issue Democrat give a fuck about, and could counteract parts of a red wave, especially in swing states such as PA where abortion is up in the air. it'll drive Democrats to vote in Democrats.
on the other hand, it'd be a very long time for the average pea brained American to remember it, but also Democrats' every other word will be abortion.
I think it's affect in swing states that matter will bolster Democrat support though. Democrats ain't gonna let their base forget. Bump to Democrats.
Apparently SCOTUS will make the ruling in July next year, which is close enough to November.
Anything that happens over 14-30 days before the election will have little to no effect as it tends to quickly getting forgotten. Though it could be a decent tactic for Dems if it’s close enough.
It would probably help dems recover some lost territory in the suburbs, and it might piss enough people off for good voter turnout. That’s a big might however
It would help the Dems a lot.