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2 more COVID-19 deaths as Singapore reports new high of 1,504 cases

2 more COVID-19 deaths as Singapore reports new high of 1,504 cases

mcclanedutch

"The Health Ministry said on Thursday that ground operations are “much strained”, with case numbers on the rise and home recovery the default mode of care management for COVID-19 patients." I'm pretty sure if there is any new measures, it will be to address the strain on MOH ground operations.


Durian881

Seemed that MOH should have been better prepared for the "rite of passage".


thegodfather_99

Eh really pity our healthcare workers :(


CSlv

At this point I pity the call centers.


maybethisnameisfree

Maybe foodpanda could donate some of the customer service representatives to help MOH out


CSlv

Me: *But it's been 10 days since I started home quarantine and I've already went for my PCR. It was negative! Why can't I leave the house?!* Call Center Rep: *If you solve these riddles three only then would I set you free*


-_af_-

Q1: I am the next PM. Who am I?


cigsandbooze

HAHAHAHAHAAH pls dont give them any ideas


ibasawgl

what is the air speed of an unladen swallow?


P_SG

African or European?


ibasawgl

What.. I don't know that.. AIEEEEEE


P_SG

I was trying to imagine the sound. AIEEEEEE captured it perfectly! Thank you for the laugh.


meekiatahaihiam

Just toss the holy hand grenade of Antioch. Arrghhhhh


Fisherpike

HAHAHA I fuckin broke at riddles three. Wheeeee


Iridiumstuffs

But they don’t have any…


-_af_-

I think someone on another thread said no one is manning the call centers.


nirmalv

With Singapore having one of the most educated and intelligent set of folks around, I would have thought there would be even higher vaccination rates. Some of the deaths are needless. Imagine working throughout your lives, finally having a retirement nest and then being swayed by a Facebook/what's app post.


aldoteng2

Educated - yes Intelligent / wise / savvy - I'm not sure about that


aub_ao

You are pointing to the heart of the Singaporean paradox. Being brilliant a passing tests is not the same thing as being intelligent.


Intentionallyabadger

Education and intelligence are not the same haha


pyroSeven

Don’t confuse education with intelligence.


Tsuikyit_The_VIP

To our frontline workers, you’re the real MVPs


lbcr

I'm just so tired


Geminispace

Same here my friend


ashskier

Everyone of us can help our MVPs a tone simply by reducing our exposure during this time.


mangosteenlover

Yea let's clap for them!


Coh_

We did it Reddit! We solved overworked frontline workers!


grimlya

> A total of 163 cases of serious illness require oxygen supplementation, and 23 are in critical condition in the intensive care unit (ICU Does anyone know what's the percentage of those who require oxygen supplementation and are in ICU are vaccinated?


isparavanje

https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/local-situation-report/ceg-20210922_daily_report_on_covid-19.pdf About half vaccinated, which is pretty good considering that ~90% of adults are vaccinated. This basically reflects the ~90% effectiveness at preventing severe disease; you need 9x more people to have roughly the same number end up in ICU.


ElNino1993

They only provide this figure. Over the last 28 days, the percentage of local cases who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms is 97.9%. 289 cases required oxygen supplementation and 29 had been in the ICU. Of these, 53.8% were fully vaccinated and 46.2% were unvaccinated/ partially vaccinated. 13 have died, of whom 23.1% were fully vaccinated and 76.9% were unvaccinated/ partially vaccinated.


zxLv

Is the age of those in the ICU and the deceased reported?


DuePomegranate

Yes, there is an age bracket breakdown. It’s right on the MOH front page. https://www.moh.gov.sg/ Click on “View graphs for day-by-day details and trends on COVID-19 situation”


kayatoast_with_milo

I was looking for that yesterday. They don't seem to be sharing that graph anymore, or if they are, it isn't easy to find.


skycaelum

I checked - they took it out [edit: put it in the situation report] on 8 Sep, when they changed to their new reporting style. Which was why I was always in favour of them being as transparent as possible rather than constantly tweaking info released to the public based on “we know better than you on what data to focus on”. There is always a chance that important metrics like that will become redacted/hidden.


puncel

That information is now in the PDF version of the situation report - Figure 4 Today's report - [https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/2019-ncov/ceg\_20210923\_daily\_report\_on\_covid-19.pdf](https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/2019-ncov/ceg_20210923_daily_report_on_covid-19.pdf) u/ElNino1993 u/kayatoast_with_milo u/grimlya


skycaelum

Thanks for clarifying!


DuePomegranate

The reason (IMO) is that those 3 bar graphs don’t accurately reflect the efficacy of vaccines because the unvaccinated group has a big chunk of children under 12, who are at remarkably low risk and therefore make the stats for unvaccinated look good. If everyone over the age of 12 got vaccinated, the unvaccinated group may well have 0% in ICU or dead, since so far no kids have had severe cases in SG. Instead, they now tell you the proportion of severe/ICU/death cases who were vaccinated vs unvaccinated, as linked by u/puncel.


Builder-Sea

Im starting to believe 1504 cases is not the real number. Why? Our government started allowing us to self test with ART kits. This allows positive cases to hide themselves as negatives when left unsupervised. Most ART tests are unsupervised. And companies may not want their staff to be away for more than 10 days, therefore they will send the positive staff back home for 3 days till they are negative. Since the rise of covid19 cases in Singapore, many people have also complained of difficulties finding GPs that are available for PCR tests, which delays the process of being an official positive case. With the current growths, there should be at least 2000 positive cases daily, but due to the backlog and difficulties faced by the MOH staff, 1504 cases are officially reported. So everyone, please take care of yourselves, dont be disappointed if youre positive and cant get connected. Just isolate yourselves and try to cure if theres nobody getting back. Take care and I hope that we can get through all of this in one part.


myr0n

What happen if there is 2000 cases? There's probably around same amount of people getting other kind of influenza virus. The vaccine have proven to work, those infected has shown mostly none to minor symptoms. It's time to stop being so obsess of the number people getting infected and time to move on.


CSlv

The difference is you don't have the state running its machine to hunt down and issue QOs to people with the common cold. That's what's straining the system. This endemic strategy still a half-fuck Covid-zero, half-fuck endemic strategy.


Builder-Sea

There will be 20k cases daily. I dont mind seeing that numbers since the majority of us are vaccinated. But either the government make regulations to make positive ART tests to be reported properly and make sure these people isolates themselves or we will have scandals worser than our neighboring countries which will result in Singaporeans having to go through mandatory quarantine prior to arrival when departing Singapore. This will affect us travel thirsty Singaporeans once we open up to travel.


myr0n

Why not just drop the testing completely? Let is be real, before covid nobody declare their acute illness neither do some seek medical attention. People still appear at work and public places. There so many influenza virus strains. I don't see you asking for statistics of it. Covid is no longer a death threat after vaccine. It is no longer necessary to track or quarantine. I wouldn't care if it's 0 or 20k tomorrow. Everyone need to move on.


zoinks10

Exactly this. I've been on a plane before when sick - as have millions of other people. You've had something booked for months, you're not going to change plans because of a sniffle. Once this thing stops being deadly (which by and large it has, when the vaccine is taken into account), why treat it differently to anything else? When was the last time you got a chicken pox test before climbing on a plane?


elpipita20

Also the vaccinated and asymptomatic folk walking around. This is why I think obsessing over case numbers is futile and doesn't help.


iLackIntelligence

Yes you are correct but a lot of countries don’t test as much as we do. We still do a lot of surveillance testing eg for our migrant workers and frontline workers that other countries don’t do. So at the end when you compare sg’s numbers to other countries we find more cases than others.


zoinks10

> Im starting to believe 1504 cases is not the real number Which is even better news. If more of us have this and aren't sick then let's get the fuck on with our lives. The only people dying of this now are unvaccinated and elderly with comorbitiies. We can't save everyone, let's stop hospitalising people with mild symptoms and let it run.


swordfishunter

I said this the other day and people cried conspiracy.


Drink82

That was always going to be the case since most people don't even know they got covid unless they get tested at work. Honestly, the higher the dark number the better, because that means we get out of this faster.


xMrAngryPie

With the current high load of cases by MOH. Do MOH now request to collect your TraceTogether App Data? Isit a elephant now


honbhige

Have to ask VB


normificator

Don’t disturb him, he still having sleepless nights.


shizukesa92

How much farther is this from the actual figures if the hotlines can't track all the cases being reported through which?


Mediocre-Dot9109

I don't think positive PCR tests are reported by calling a hotline, these come straight from the laboratories. FWIW: I went for my day 3 PCR test after returning from Germany yesterday. Not a single person besides me getting swabbed there over a timespan of 20 minutes (Raffles Medical Clementi) so the doctor and nurses were chatty. I don't think the testing infrastructure is overwhelmed.


shizukesa92

I think you're right, it just struck me because one of my colleague's daughter tested positive on the ART and she couldn't find a way to report it because she couldn't call through


RIMBarisax

It may not be necessary to call the hotline if the ART was positive. Current guidance if there are no symptoms is to isolate for 72 hours, then take a follow up ART. If symptomatic or if the second ART is positive, visit a clinic to do a PCR test. Hope that helps!


xMrAngryPie

Do MOH Follow up on your close contact? Like requesting for your TraceTogether details? So they can ring fence the close contact?


RIMBarisax

Wasn’t specified in the MOH release, so I think in case of a positive ART with no/mild symptoms, they will not follow up. Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/what-to-do-have-covid-19-symptoms-ART-test-positive-diy-2191716


DuePomegranate

An ART positive is not considered proof of being Covid positive. With so many people taking ARTs without symptoms or close contact, there are going to be a lot of false positives. You can either stay home for 3 days, then take another ART, or if there are symptoms or you just want to know for sure, you take a photo of the ART test next to your IC and go to a SASH clinic to get a PCR test.


[deleted]

She is supposed to go to a phpc clinic to get PCR test. Why the fuck is she calling the damn hotline to report a positive ART test???


BerryTG

Lol now we know why the hotlines are so clogged up XD


Mediocre-Dot9109

The process would be to walk to the nearest testing center (I have like 5 in walking distance) rather than to clog up a hotline but the communication on that could have been better.


sneakpeek_bot

> # 2 more COVID-19 deaths as Singapore reports new high of 1,504 cases > SINGAPORE: Singapore reported a record 1,491 new local COVID-19 infections as of noon on Thursday (Sep 23), comprising 1,218 community cases and 273 dormitory residents. > There were also two new fatalities, taking the national death toll to 70. > The first was a 93-year-old Singaporean woman who died on Thursday. She tested positive for COVID-19 on Sep 17 and had not been vaccinated against the disease, said the Ministry of Health (MOH). > She also had a history of heart failure, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. > The second fatality, a 71-year-old Singaporean woman, tested positive for the disease on Thursday and died on the same day. She was unvaccinated and had a history of cancer. > The new cases include 343 seniors above the age of 60, the Health Ministry said in a daily update released to the media at about 10.30pm. > There were also 13 imported cases, taking the daily tally to 1,504, the highest since the pandemic began early last year. > As of Thursday, Singapore has reported a total of 82,856 COVID-19 cases. > CASES OF SERIOUS ILLNESS > There are 1,120 patients warded in hospital. Most of them are well and under observation, said MOH. > A total of 163 cases of serious illness require oxygen supplementation, and 23 are in critical condition in the intensive care unit (ICU). > Among those who fell very ill are 155 seniors above the age of 60. > Over the last 28 days, 97.9 per cent of the local cases were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms. > There were 289 cases who needed oxygen supplementation and 29 had been in the ICU. Of these, 53.8 per cent were fully vaccinated and 46.2 per cent were either partially vaccinated or unvaccinated. --- 1.0.2 | [Source code](https://github.com/fterh/sneakpeek) | [Contribute](https://github.com/fterh/sneakpeek)


zingermeows

Is covid treatment fully paid by the government? This sounds rly expensive 😣


Taellion

Afaik unless you are a short term visitor or you caught COVID 19 during your travels outside the country and came back, as long as your seek treatment in a public hospital government will foot your bill but it doesn't extend to outpatient treatment.


puncel

>5. ***Over the last 28 days***, the percentage of local cases who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms is 97.9%. 289 cases required oxygen supplementation and 29 had been in the ICU. Of these, 53.8% were fully vaccinated and 46.2% were unvaccinated/ partially vaccinated. ***13 have died***, of whom 23.1% were fully vaccinated and 76.9% were unvaccinated/ partially vaccinated. I did not fact check the rest of the information in this paragraph, but more than 13 have died in the last 28 days. 13 is correct if they count only for September. And with 23 in the ICU today, plus the at least 13 that have died, does the number 29 (in ICU for the past 28 days) make sense? Or they minus those who have succumbed? [https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-covid-19-situation-(23-sep-2021)](https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-covid-19-situation-(23-sep-2021))


DuePomegranate

They subtract those who died. They aren’t occupying ICU beds anymore. That’s one reason why ICU numbers aren’t spiking that hard. The oldest and weakest ones die relatively quickly in ICU. Grim, but it keeps ICU resources available.


ToastedKoppi

If I were the government I would be full hands on deckq secure proper oxygen supply, ICUs, and hospital beds :( Some rough weeks are incoming, specially with Singapore old population


AZGzx

All those is easy… just throw money… the one that’s stopping these is staff


tehtf

All these also have difficulties... but yes biggest issue currently is still staff shortage/fatigue


DatzQuickMaths

Should have been doing this over the last 1.5 years tbh…..wasn’t that what lockdowns were for in addition to flattening the curve …..


sgtransitevolution

The good thing about such a high case count is that it has forced the government to commit to reopening, since circuit breaker is going to be mostly (and perhaps even almost completely) ineffective at this point, based on the experiences of other countries with the Delta variant. The bad thing is that now our contact tracing and quarantining system is overwhelmed. They will actually have to go for good, if we want any hope of maximising the use of the healthcare system and to stop it from collapse. Actually, given how ineffective lockdowns will be based on the experiences of other countries, I’m not even sure if they have a choice. Perhaps reporting infections to authorities may even have to become optional for people with mild symptoms. Will quarantine become optional since they can’t enforce it? Only time will tell.


ivan7296

I was calculating on estimates based on last year, we might need a 6-8 months CB if they want to bring it back to zero I think they should channel resources to help those in need of medical attention, instead of micromanaging every mild symptom or asymptomatic case, might be a better use of the resources at hand treating every case as if it is a death sentence


AdministrativeRub235

For sure. But again, the communications strategy has been a fiasco. There isn't even a single webpage where one can find the most up-to-date information. For example, MOH website gives one version of FAQs about what to do in the event of a positive ART test, dated sometime in August; meanwhile ST has another list of FAQs based on Kenneth Mak's press conference statement dated 18 September, and CNA has another version of that published yesterday, but which is impossible to locate on the MOH website. [https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/how-the-new-self-isolation-recovery-regime-works-for-asymptomatic-covid-19-patients](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/how-the-new-self-isolation-recovery-regime-works-for-asymptomatic-covid-19-patients) [https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/what-to-do-have-covid-19-symptoms-ART-test-positive-diy-2191716](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/what-to-do-have-covid-19-symptoms-ART-test-positive-diy-2191716) Meanwhile, [Gov.sg](https://Gov.sg) has some weird newsfeed/blog format where posts like "What you need to know about Home Recovery" are interspersed with stuff like "Forming friendships that transcend time, nationality and ethnicity". It's rather difficult to get info about COVID in one place until you click your way through to: [https://www.gov.sg/features/covid-19](https://www.gov.sg/features/covid-19) And even that page isn't laid out in an awfully user-friendly way. All in all, that makes for public confusion (particularly for those affected).


ivan7296

I agree with you on the comms part, it's a mess. They need to just have one FAQ/measures in one site, and every news outlet have to quote base on it, so that it is uniformed, and it is clear, even if it is just a PDF.


mrwagga

Literally a QR code with a link. Blasted on every channel, billboard, mrt, bus, void deck. A month ago. Positive.DoWhat.gov.sg I mean… is this rocket science?


saintlyknighted

Pamphlets sent to every household as well. Why they’re not doing this? Well probably because the SOPs change every 3 days, but that’s also another issue they need to tackle.


mrwagga

That is a problem in itself. I’d understand a need to change protocols if the healthcare system approaches previously provisioned upper limits (which was 1000? then 300? then 100 icu beds? and now apparently not even that?). Instead, the MTF, with their usual boundless unwarranted self-confidence, believe they are virtuosos capable of playing by ear.


Fellinlovewithawhore

They probably don't have the complete advice to disseminate. Remember the not-sick-dont-wear-mask fiasco? Better to stfu than give wrong info that would get back to them


mrwagga

Pretty much. Which begs the question: dafuq were they doing?


flydrive

reporting infections is already somewhat optional. eg if you give yourself an ART test and are positive with no symptoms you're encouraged to just stay home for 3 days and test yourself again. You are discouraged greatly from going to hospital and the guidance does allow for you to go to a SASH clinic but it's definitely optional and when I read it the impression I got was .. if you aren't actually feeling even a bit ill please just .. don't.


DuePomegranate

That’s because many ART positive results are going to be false positives. Even if only 1 in 1000 uninfected people get a false positive result, with the nation spamming non-sick people with ARTs, there’s going to be hundreds to thousands of false positive ARTs a day. If you have a positive ART and start to feel sick, it’s probably real and you’re advised to go get a PCR test.


accidentalclipboard

If COVID really is endemic, you don't need contact tracing any more.


sfushimi

Exactly!


saintlyknighted

There's no way they'll make quarantine optional, not for a long time, at the very least parents with unvaccinated children will not stand for it. What's important is that they have to automate as much of the asymptomatic/mild symptoms home quarantine process as possible, they simply don't have the manpower to tag one MOH officer/volunteer to one positive case anymore. Of course this comes at the cost of micromanagement and control (and you'll definitely have people breaking the law and going out, just see the news post earlier today) but I think the hand's gonna be forced pretty soon. The government will have to trust the people to do the right thing, because that's how it's gonna be eventually, and then deal with those errant/irresponsible. At this stage it's better to have a hundred more cases with the healthcare system able to manage rather than the system breaking down entirely.


AdministrativeRub235

>The good thing about such a high case count is that it has forced the government to commit to reopening, since circuit breaker is going to be mostly (and perhaps even almost completely) ineffective at this point, based on the experiences of other countries with the Delta variant. "IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WORSE IN THOSE COUNTRIES IF THEY HADN'T LOCKED DOWN!" Please do not underestimate the ability of these people to have a wildly different takeaway from whatever has transpired over the past 1.5 years.


mantism

see: New Zealand right now they are on the '% vaccination then *maybe* we won't have a lockdown' stage - very familiar. Amusingly, [that figure is 90%](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/new-zealand-covid-19-lockdowns-end-high-vaccine-uptake-2196371).


AdministrativeRub235

I used to think that New Zealand would be a nice place to live. Looking at the smugness, self-righteousness and downright delusional thinking displayed on r/newzealand over the last few months has disabused me of that notion.


decawrite

If that's the case, you probably shouldn't be living here either...


AdministrativeRub235

Haha yeah, but at least r/singapore doesn't slobber over our politicians in the way they do The Jacinda personality cult on that sub is very disturbing


decawrite

To be fair, while she's human too, and we are not perfect, what we've been hearing from the news makes me think that that "cult of personality" is a little more warranted in her case than with many other politicians. Bit tricky to phrase, but while I'm not in favour of blind support for anyone, I suppose she's done more things correctly to deserve that than others.


Drink82

Anything that happened before the majority of the population was vaccinated doesn't count anymore. If nothing else cause most peot aren't scared of the virus anymore.


li_shi

>ineffective lockdowns will be based on the experiences of other countries, I’m not even sure if they have a choice. Perhaps reporting infections to authorities may even have to become optional for I don't get the part where you say lockdown where ineffective. It's proven that it's the fastest way to bring down the numbers. I think it's just you that have unrealistic expectations from the measure, no will not bring cases to zero and it will take time to see the number go down. The cost of it can be discussed but I think no one is saying that once ICU beds are full that is the only solution available. Other than welp, I guess we will just have people dying until the peak is naturally over.


sgtransitevolution

I am referring to how in some countries, like Malaysia, Australia and Vietnam, which began their lockdown with more than a few cases, and left/are leaving/will leave lockdown with a few times more cases than when they entered it.


sfushimi

We didn't have tracetogether for the flu. We didn't have this level of restrictions and reporting for the flu (and people mainly use their common sense to deal with it). Can't have that with Covid, though, because your common sense going wrong could actually land you in jail.


tegeusCromis

Show me a time when flu had effects as significant as covid is having now.


Book3pper

H1N1 had killed more children in Singapore back in 2009 than covid. We didn't lock down or cry out "think of the kids".


DuePomegranate

At the kids end of the age spectrum, flu and Covid aren’t so different. It’s the elderly end of the spectrum where Covid is vastly more dangerous than H1N1. Even with Covid vaccines, since essentially every elderly person has T cell immunity to closely related strains of H1N1 influenza.


tegeusCromis

Adults don’t matter? BTW, we did have contact tracing, hospitalisation, and QOs for H1N1. Also, funny that you earlier said “the flu” (implying ordinary flu) and then had to go to H1N1 for your (bad) example. That’s certainly not what any reasonable reader would have thought your original comment was referring to. Note that I’m not saying we should lock down now. I don’t think lockdowns make sense any more. But you are suggesting that no measures should be taken at all, not even tracing or reporting. That’s extreme.


AdministrativeRub235

18 more people on oxygen supplementation compared to yesterday (12% increase). 4 more in ICU compared to yesterday (21% increase). Not all too bad in absolute terms (the percentage figures are eyecatching but dangerous to try inferring too much from), but of course this is happening when local cases have only been above 1000 for 3 days. It would be quite silly to assume that they will stop at this level (and probably undesirable if we are ever to reach endemicity and avoid simply storing up further waves for the future). So, what's the plan? (And of course, you still seem to have a couple hundred mild/asymptomatic people taking up hospital beds, in the 0-60 age range. Is that sensible? Will that be changing as the latest policies kick in?)


Speedz007

ICUs are on a 7-day lag if you look at the data. 7 days ago we had 934 cases total of which 141 were elderly and at risk. Today we have 1491 cases of which 243 are elderly and at risk. So we'd be at about 40 in ICU by next week. The plan is to keep going till ICU capacity is threatened. My guess is that'd be at about 100 ICU cases with a still exponential rise in cases overall. At the current rate, that could happen in about 2 weeks or about 6k cases per day if we assume a doubling rate of 7 days. But as OYK said, waves don't keep rising forever. There's a good chance in 2 weeks the case growth is no longer exponential. Don't mean to jinx it, but it's been 9 days since we hit 833 cases, and we still haven't doubled our daily cases yet.


AdministrativeRub235

Hmm, that 2 weeks isn't hard and fast though. If we're off by just a couple of weeks and non-exponential growth continues past that, we'll probably peak at just under \~9000 cases (just throwing out a wild guess tbh), and that'll be thanks to the restrictions we're now operating under. I do think your 6000 figure will end up being the closest to the mark though, probably anywhere from 4000 - 9000 really. But again, if we keep the peak low now with stringent restrictions and bring cases down rapidly, it just means we're really just storing up MANY more waves for the future. EDIT: Not being very coherent, but I guess my point is that we need to focus on further breaking the link between cases and ICU usage. Vaccines have done an awful lot of work on that front; can we go further by focusing protection on vulnerable groups rather than implementing broad-brush social restrictions?


ivan7296

They are giving booster shots for those vulnerable Without a vaccine mandate, next best thing is to take a leaf from France's book No vax, almost no activities for you. In a way you are protecting them, since they will less likely to be outside in dangerous places for them


New-Emu330

We've slowed down. Last week we were 100% week on week, yesterday 74%, today 70% so the doubling every 7 days is no longer valid


ToastedKoppi

Why the waves would reduce? Can you remind me what was the cause for reduction in that model? Sorry I'm already lost with all this changing information. In the past, waves would be reduced with CB and more restrictions. But if it's left unchecked, it will peak and saturate at a point for months. Right? Did the waves were reduced in UK? Something that scares me is that Singapore doesn't have a good herd immunity :( Most countries have thousands of deaths and a bigger number of survivors that provides good levels of herd immunity. I know ~82% are vaccinated, but still people is requiring oxygen/ICU, fatality will peak if there's a scarcity of those resources


flydrive

Rise in infections peaks because models which predict constant exponential growth assume constant perfect random mixing of people. That's not how the world works however, people really form 10s of 1000s of small groups which interact regularly with only small links between them. This limits the peaks of infection but also makes the tail off slow.


Iamrandom17

we are still under some restrictions + ig when the cases start rising, it’s human nature for some people to stay home, be more careful so inherently at one point the spread of the virus will slow down and will stabilise


ToastedKoppi

With people still working in the offices and going out. I doubt it, specially since some bus interchanges are also clusters now


xtremetjw

Was just thinking, the numbers we are seeing, it is after accounting for movements in/out. I.e. the +4 in ICU cases we are seeing is after -2 deaths. Assuming that those who passed away were in ICU prior? And there could also be cases of recoveries? This could mean a greater rate of ICU cases, but could also paint a picture that people are recovering faster if we do know these figures.


goldenskies77

Not sure how important ICU numbers are at the moment with hospitals having constraint issues and the entire system and infrastructure is at risk of collapse.


Humble-Chris

Stable ICU cases is absolutely crucial towards easing restrictions. The number has increased since a couple of days ago. It was 19 yesterday. Unlike normal ward, it is harder and takes longer to increase ICU facilities. Hence the ICU number needs to peak ASAP; else it would be very concerning.


saintlyknighted

> Hence the ICU number needs to peak ASAP; else it would be very concerning. Honestly it's more important for the case numbers to peak soon, because if they persistently don't, then you can bet your ass the ICU isn't gonna peak either because it's a lagging indicator. I know we should be moving away from focusing on case numbers, but we're now dealing with *orders* of magnitude, where changes can actually be quite significant.


flydrive

ICU numbers aren't going to peak soon. Infections are rising and ICU cases lag that. I'm still expecting another doubling of cases to about 3000+ a day before we hit the peak and 2 doublings of ICU cases to 100 - 150 at the peak. That would still be within capacity although it will be a hard time for healthcare workers. You obviously don't want to overwhelm the health service but if the peak was around now, at something like 10% of capacity, then you've erred a little too much on the side of caution. If the peak hits 50% or 60% of capacity and then starts to drop ('cos it's a peak) then it will have been pretty well engineered, or just lucky; not so fast as to cause a breakdown in care, not so slow that you extend the period of 'becoming endemic' over too long a period.


saintlyknighted

Sometimes we ought to remember and contextualise that we **are** in the middle of a pretty unprecedented pandemic. Healthcare systems being stretched to the limit or overloaded is quite expected/normal, looking at other countries. It takes exceptional planning and foresight to avoid this entirely, and whether we have it at the moment is...questionable at best. I wish we knew if the ICU will peak at 50-60% but we really have no idea. Considering this is our first and only truly big wave (in the community) so far, I wouldn't be surprised if we go all the way up to 5k cases or even more, though obviously I hope that won't happen.


New-Emu330

We have no idea isn't true. Many contrite have gone through this and Kenny countries publish there best and worst case scenario modelling. Singapore? We have that JIALAT model guy informs the public


AdministrativeRub235

>the ICU number needs to peak ASAP That sounds like wishful thinking. Again, I don't think the absolute numbers are concerning yet, but they are on course to reach a concerning level down the line - and it may well be inevitable.


Humble-Chris

Peaking and stabling ICU cases is not an option for easing restrictions and more important to save lives. The cracks in the covid crisis management by the MMTF is showing up.


saintlyknighted

Can't believe I'm saying this, but sadly if MOH doesn't get their shit together fast, we'd probably be headed toward a hard lockdown, never mind the ICU cases. It wouldn't be to bring the cases down to zero, but to stunt the increase as much as possible to buy some time for MOH to come up with automated procedures that don't change every two days. I hope we don't have to resort to that obviously.


AdministrativeRub235

>if MOH doesn't get their shit together fast The infuriating part about this is that this was entirely within their control and yet they're trying to blame the virus for being "quicker to attack" than they expected.


Strangeronthebus2019

> The infuriating part about this is that this was entirely within their control and yet they're trying to blame the virus for being "quicker to attack" than they expected. We had many countries to observe this 1 year plus of "hindsight"... I am kinda puzzled why some in "leadership" is so hard up to decapitate the country from my perspective. If Singapore consider its man power as its resource...would it not be prudent to preserve and take care of it. Now it is akin to setting fire to the forest of palm trees for a palm oil farmer. Even if its to clear land, which other tree wants to be replanted there if it observes how the previous tree was treated. **Super small island, high density population.** Context people, context. Health Care workers, take care...it's super dangerous for you guys right now, I am sorry you guys have to go through the fire. Stay safe.


quietobserver1

Is that from a quote? Would like to see it if they're trying to blame the virus like it's some kind of tactical genius again, like with Changi Airport.


AdministrativeRub235

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/government-monitoring-hospital-capacity-closely-as-covid-19-cases-remain-high-ong Mr Ong said: "We had planned to have a preparatory period, during which we can gradually open up while handling perhaps 100 to 200 cases a day. But Delta did not wait for us to be ready and attacked us first."


Minamo-sensei

🤣🤣 Imagine an SAF general saying the enemy did not wait for them to be ready and attacked them first


bukitbukit

And guess who was in charge of transport back then….


napierwit

There are still many unknowns on how the virus will spread given varying population demographics. Everyone's learning as we go along on how we live with this virus. This is still a novel virus providing challenges that humanity hasn't had to face in literally one hundred years. At 80% vaccination opening up and watching what happens is reasonable. Maintaining severe restrictions at that vaccination level is not tenable. Every country is going to have to live with the virus eventually, and it's not going to be a smooth transition due to the unknowns. Measures are likely to be reactive rather than proactive. It's a real world problem without a roadmap. It is what it is. Learn, adapt and move forward.


AdministrativeRub235

And I understand that entirely - I'm not claiming that they can fine-tune the virus's spread. The problem is when you do things like telling us that "we are in the process of setting up the Home Recovery buddy system" AFTER you've started asking people to recover at home, and your hotlines/communication systems are clearly unfit for purpose in giving people from different segments of society/with different digital literacy amd access/who speak or read different languages the guidance they need.


Finder_

You'd think even lacking a roadmap, one could have a scenario plan set up in advance, before loosening the restrictions. Things we will do if cases are at 100-200. Things that will be done if cases are at 1000-2000. Things that will be done if cases are at 10k-20k, etc. There was already a lot of talk about expecting cases to go up to 1k-2k the moment restrictions were loosened. You'd think that might have been a good time to put in place all the stuff that is now being scrambled up reactively, when the daily case record actually proves that prediction to be true. They'd better be prepping for a 5k-10k daily case scenario now, rather than magically hoping it will plateau and the ostrich can continue burying its head in the sand. We -hope- that scenario won't happen, but everyone will feel better if there is a plan made in advance for the possibility.


ivan7296

I was calculating on estimates based on last year, we might need a 6-8 months CB if they want to bring it back to zero, at best Even if it's down to acceptable level, then what is acceptable? Even a running average of 100 cases a day, by our FWD experience also need a minimum of 3 months. How many can accept that during that period, a lot more will be losing their jobs


alphasierrraaa

im actually really curious how most of the transmission is occurring since not a lot of info is available? is it safe to assume most are unlinked cases?


ivan7296

I think it is safe to assume most are unlinked. There will some news once in a while that markets are being hit [https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-covid-19-situation-(23-sep-2021)](https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-covid-19-situation-(23-sep-2021)) MOH does update the clusters that they can picked up every night


saintlyknighted

I don't think it's likely, but I'm just not discounting the possibility of a lockdown. The government definitely also knows that the cases have soared too high too fast for a short lockdown to be of much use. And a long lockdown is hopefully out of the picture because some industries have suffered enough, we're gonna be the laughingstock of the world locking down at 82% vaccinated, and that locking down purely because of MOH is...not a good look for the civil service.


ivan7296

Too many folks still think a CB will solve the problem. I'm reading on FB some saying 2 weeks CB is all we need Even with the original variant last year a short lockdown didn't work. Long lockdowns are worse, looking at countries like Malaysia or Australia, lockdowns didn't stop the spread. Its too the point that fortresses like Australia and NZ have given up covid zero And to lockdown with no recovery plan.. Its suicide


yomoley

Facebook comments are very brainless. I rather read comments here


Eh_brt

Rewarding failure with lockdown incentivezes incompetence. I don't see it being popular with people or good for the long-term effectiveness of our civil service. If we really need manpower, we have a bunch of ~~slaves~~ NSmen that we can deploy on swabbing tasks. Perhaps we can explore training them to do the grunt work.


jasting98

I think now that it's no longer contained, even a long lockdown may not help much anymore.


truth_hurts_mainly

Either way people are already losing jobs


ivan7296

Either the rate is slow enough for those who lost their jobs to find another one, or the rate is too fast and the job market cannot find its equilibrium


Speedymclaren

I’m actually amazed that people say the numbers aren’t concerning. If you know people in the healthcare field, it IS concerning. These healthcare workers are being fucked mentally and physically because our government failed them.


darren1119

They have 2 years to plan for such situations and they failed miserably


AdministrativeRub235

You also want to avoid a situation where security theatre and continued restrictions (eg. mask wearing etc.) provide a security blanket for people who don't want to get vaccinated and think it's fine because it's very safe because everyone else is wearing a mask or whatever sh\*t. In fact, that's partly why I detest this emphasis on mask wearing - we have severely exaggerated the efficacy of masks in preventing transmission, giving some older people a sort of "psychological out" for their refusal to get vaccinated. Do not underestimate the size of the anti-vax, pro-suppression contingent. Just take a look at EDMW or Facebook.


zxLv

I don’t think the efficacy of wearing mask gives the impression to the elderly that they are being protected from the transmission because they themselves sometimes bo chap and still don’t wear the mask properly. Those who still don’t want to get vaccinated are selfish af.


AdministrativeRub235

>because they themselves sometimes bo chap and still don’t wear the mask properly. Well, they've been told that their mask protects other people and other people's masks protect them. If they only care about the latter effect, one can understand why they wouldn't wear their own mask properly while still maintaining a belief in the efficacy of masks. Anyway, it's not at all a monolithic bloc we're talking about.


Pyrrylanion

1120 currently in hospital. This number is a sizeable chunk of public hospital capacity and it is creeping up more and more. By extension, that also means more demand on A&E services. Unless cases stabilises on its own, something must give way first. Assuming a responsible government response that aims to avert a disaster in the healthcare system, either we intervene and force the cases to stabilise soon, or we make changes to the protocols to squeeze out more capacity, or a combination in between. Recently, they did announce measures to make more space available, by pushing stable patients into community recovery facilities. Not sure how well that plan is doing and whether it can absorb the healthcare needs from this wave. They are also trying to push people away from A&E, by publishing advisories and news pieces. For those that really don’t want a step back in the reopening programme, we must hope that the wave stabilises soon and the government’s reactive measures to maintain capacity is sufficient. I think it is very important for us to be socially responsible too. Everyone can play a small part and slow this wave down. By cutting down on things that aren’t so critical, like social interaction or not so important social activities, we can help to slow the spread. By slowing the spread, we can potentially contrubute to moderating the demand on healthcare. By playing our roles, we can potentially try to avert a worse response that is even more harmful. Basically, instead of a general reactive response from the government, we can try to target social activities that we don’t really need. This is not a time to be selfish and be wilful and insist on living true to the “endemic living” concept regardless of the present situation. Ironically, by living as if it is endemic now, it makes us even further from our goals of getting to the endemic phase. It is like a team sport now, everyone pursuing their own interest may not lead us to where we want to be.


New-Emu330

Everyone is already playing their part. Max groups of 5, no sports, no music, no travel, hotel quarantine, masks everywhere even when we're asking on the beach and guess what cases are still rising. It should be the opposite and we should start relaxing restrictions now given how ineffective they are


scythentic

This. I hate hearing that we need to "exercise social responsibility" how about the government exercises some responsibility for a change? All the screw-ups have been from them so far; the dorm situation was their fault, the delta leak from the airport was their fault, and now lack of preparation with the hospitals is also their fault. Everyone has been abiding by restrictions which are already draconian enough and some of the strictest on the planet, and now they demand we limit ourselves even more. Yeah, nah.


AdministrativeRub235

Meh, I'm quite in favour of letting this play out while restrictions are still in place so that they can't pin it on reopening. It's like how cases were surging in the UK right up until Freedom Day and started dropping right after that - the lockdowners made fools of themselves predicting that if restrictions were relaxed, they'd be seeing 200000 cases a day. That said, they'll probably still find a way to blame the current wave on people "not wearing their masks properly" or whatever.


scythentic

Melbourne, Australia went into an extremely harsh lockdown, much harsher than our P2HA, when they recorded 6 community cases, and today recorded 745 cases. I have absolutely no idea how people still think we can deploy the same strategy on the delta variant when it clearly hasn't worked in so many other countries. Even New Zealand which was the gold standard locked down with 1 case and is still locked down weeks later, and even the officials there have come out saying that they may not eliminate this. > That said, they'll probably still find a way to blame the current wave on people "not wearing their masks properly" or whatever. It's already happening, so many comments on this subreddit and on facebook placing blame on people who are wearing their mask below their nose when sitting on a park bench or being less than 1 meter apart in queues, its complete nonsense.


syahawesome

235 days of lockdown and less than 40% of fully vaxxed in the whole country. yeah my friends in Victoria are tired of this whole fiasco


Bwri017

You are wrong about NZ, only Auckland is is level 3 (equivalent to 2HA) rest of the country is back to normal and get this can even play sports, go out and do anything they want.


DatzQuickMaths

Vegetables and bus drivers having lunch together 🤦🏽‍♂️


AdministrativeRub235

Nothing beats this though: 'This warrants closer investigation, said Dr Leong Hoe Nam from the Rophi Clinic, as he called for measures at these places to be tightened. "... There might also be a need to look at toilets, where they take out their masks, wash their faces - the toilet may turn out to be the most contaminated place," he said.'


gydot

You and me, we'll do our part. Stand toge-wait no, Stand apart. ART to ART.


DevotedAnalSniffer

And those same people that call for lockdowns will be the ones taking pictures of lonely seniors with their masks down and blaming everything on them


isparavanje

I think it's quite likely that cases would stabilise somewhat, or at least growth will slow down quite soon. You can see that the growth is already deviating significantly from a simple exponential, leading to a drop in the inferred reproduction number: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/singapore/ I do generally agree that it's time for people to be careful and reduce social contact though, and that if the trend goes back to exponential more measures might be necessary. It really perplexes me, but recently in this sub any good news regarding covid just gets downvoted ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯


DudeSongan

While I don't have any issues regarding how relaxed the rules are now, what grinds my gears are people who treat this as nothing more than a hindrance to their desire to hang out with their friends and socialise. On one hand, I see people treating this like the next bubonic plague and ceasing any and all social interactions. On another hand, I see others treating this pandemic as nothing more than an inconvenience to "#party". In my opinion, it's all about balance. Once you start behaving in extremes, you'll mess things up either way. But hey, if anyone takes offense at my statement just because they can't see eye-to-eye, let's just agree to disagree :).


isparavanje

I totally agree, I think a lot of people are not really being very rational about the whole thing.


GuaranteeNo507

Hard truths to keep Singapore going, take my upvote☝️


Farquadthefirst

The endemic model the government and so many of you want is steadily increasing the body count and the amount of confirmed cases. Most of you say it’s still good numbers till you kena covid or have to isolate at home. It’s easy to say, “Too bad, this is endemic” and then having to retract that once you have covid.


[deleted]

What do you propose then? Edit: Eh why downvotes, tell what you all propose la. You all very smart, right. Give a solution that save lives and livelihoods and help our HCW la


jenoroth77

The ones calling for lockdown or more restrictions never lost their jobs and will not understand the feelings and hardship for the many hundreds of thousands working in F&B, arts, entertainment and tourism who might potentially or has already lost their jobs


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Speedymclaren

Facts, also not my job. Not his job, not your job. Government is there to give solutions but the solution is failing.


wiltedpop

Isnt this the best time to get covid? When we are within the 6 month window of vaccine strongest antibody count. We should just chill the f down, take some multivitamins and take a few days mc if dont feel well


alex10019

Ah yes I wish I can just take a few multi vitamins, take mc and drop my work and responsibilities for a few weeks just to get covid!


DuePomegranate

I mean, it could happen whether you intend to catch it or not. You are not so indispensable that your company will die without you (unless self-employed lah).


QzSG

On the contrary, most employees after being away for a few days will quite literally be buried by backlogs from work thrown at them. At least self employed saying you are sick is at least a genuine excuse to push back work, in an employee scenario, the system still moves while one small cog is faulty and being replaced


DevotedAnalSniffer

Wish the rest of this country thought like you


savemefromcupcakesm

Not if u have elderly or children at home?! These people might actually die….


flydrive

children even unvaccinated are at lower risk than any and every other age group even vaccinated . They are at such low risk that vaccinating them, even when we get to it, is going to make basically no difference. Worry about the old, yes, but kids, no.


AdministrativeRub235

>Not if u have elderly Maybe we should have focused on protecting those people in the first place. Instead we're actively concentrated on testing and locking up young healthy people, many of whom don't actually have symptoms. >children Who are at lower risk of death from COVID than vaccinated adults.


Book3pper

As much as it sounds callous, why are people feeling bad that 90+ year olds are dying? Yeah, it's someone's mother/father etc. and the family is definitely hurting but they lived a long life where if they didn't die of covid, a simple respiratory illness could have killed them if they had caught it. For children, there is no 0% risk of not dying. Back when H1N1 was making waves in 2009, a 7 year old child died from it. People just shrugged and moved on.


Drink82

Exactly. Of course it's sad, but do we need to lock down everything to protect 90 year olds who are at high risk of death from a million causes?


DevotedAnalSniffer

They're jabbed. They won't die.


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123dream321

Why can't the governments discuss?


EthanPhan

Why not? We are vaccinated


PM_ME_ALEVEL_SLIPS

https://old.reddit.com/r/askSingapore/comments/pth1oh/healthcare_workers_in_singapore_how_is_the/ half the comments here dont realise how strained our resources are, just point at icu number and say no problem nia


Fellinlovewithawhore

To prevent floodings you don't ask for lesser rains, you build better drains. We should divert our resources to expand medical abilities rather than subsidise businesses for another lockdown.


Tiger_King_

See la. Sing NDP song without mask on the bus. See now 1500 liao


oh_siobhan

A 93 year old, unvaccinated, with comorbidities of diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia SHOUOD NOT BE FRONT PAGE FUCKING NEWS AS A COVID DEATH.


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BrianHangsWanton

53% of those who need oxygen are vaccinated, not 53% of those vaccinated need oxygen.


Speedz007

What the fuck is the issue that you are talking about? A bunch of mostly healthy people with barely any symptoms not getting a call to check on them and give them a goody bag of things that are already been distributed via other means? MOH is strained because grown-ass adults with a throat itch want to be baby-ed and told everything will be okay and they want it now. Stay at home and isolate till day 10, call the doctor if your symptoms get worse. How hard is it?


honbhige

Cos their automation cmi and their company ask for mc how


sonertimotei

It's hard because MOH kept telling ppl that they will arrange for them this and that but no answer from them after that. Most ppl cannot follow the whole procedure because they lack something from MOH. For example, MOH need to send them OI SMS in order for them to be eligible for a PCR test at the centre because other places will reject them. Some after 5 days still no care-buddy or any telemedicine provider assigned. They can't even submit their oximeter reading cause no care pack is given. And lastly, if you call a doctor or clinic, they will still refer you to MOH or tell you to call 995.


scythentic

I can't really blame these people because the government has essentially brainwashed a large percentage of the population into thinking this is the black death with the insanely harsh restrictions and policing to ensure compliance even for the smallest things. It's going to take a long time for citizens to become more comfortable with large case counts compared to other countries where citizens there are completely used to it.


sfushimi

Are we victim blaming the quarantined now? If you use your common sense and anyhow interpret the quarantine rules (which can change literally daily), precedent has shown you can be fined or thrown in jail. Are you seriously faulting people for wanting to be a bit more careful here? Hey tough guy, let's see how well YOU do with covid when it's your turn.


DevotedAnalSniffer

For real, people congesting the healthcare system with mild complications from covid and need to be told what to do. How hard is it to use your common sense and listen to your body?


swordfishunter

Isn’t that the point. This is Singapore with 5G and almost all with a mobile, not Afghanistan. If you can’t handle a hotline, then don’t have the number. A website, a repeated voice instruction recording on the phone while on hold, hell even mail dropped pamphlets with clear and concise instructions. This could have been done waaaay before the surge. Don’t say “we’ll call you back” give a definite date and time. Right now there is nothing as the message they want to disseminate changes too often to be accurate. What the fuck I want? Accountability.


Speedz007

Use 5G to go to MOH website, use the world-class education you received to comprehend the course of action. Let me make it even easier: https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/covid-19-inforgraphics/moh-10-steps-(covid-)-(0917).pdf Why do you need instructions for everything? Can you not figure out what the sensible thing to do is?


hypothid

What do you expect tho? We can’t be stuck in lockdown forever


KenjiZeroSan

We can't. But we can't have this buddy bullshit system in place either. Someone in the ministry needs to step up their game asap or the numbers will rise.


swordfishunter

It will rise and rise, because there is nothing functional in place yet. Even if the extra care facilities and buddies come on line tomorrow, they will be overwhelmed quickly. I’ve said many times, you can’t fuck with delta.


swordfishunter

Did I mention lockdown anywhere ? How bout some prep before reopening? This was “not unexpected” and here they are only now trying to beef up the system. It should have been in place and tested well before this “controlled calibrated reopening” This is like shitting without toilet paper. Art test shortage, unanswered calls and an FAQ sms. I seriously can’t see how they can’t do worse than this level of lip service assclownery.


AdministrativeRub235

They've had an awful lot of time to prep. This is entirely on them and not on the virus or on the public's behaviour (with the exception of hypochondriacs clogging up A&Es).


PumpkinTaro

Shitting without toilet paper and only starting to route a low-pressure bidet. Last year’s covid was largely contained to Low-wage migrant workers who don’t have much bargaining power in the system. So the authorities could skim here and there. And now, is the real deal.


R-X89

OP never say he want lockdown or to be stuck in lockdown. Its just damn frustrating that all this talk of transitioning to endemic way of life and yet, no firm SOP or manpower to support the recover @ home plan. This is the pissing off part. MMTF have been talking for a while about transitioning, and got people ask for a plan. The prep work for SOP & battle stations being manned at the call center for the recover @ home plan should have been done before declaring it as the default.


Humble-Chris

There is definitely a lapse in the planning and execution here to the extent that ST published an article on this yesterday. [https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/home-recovery-with-no-support-among-issues-aired-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/home-recovery-with-no-support-among-issues-aired-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases) I've serious doubt on crisis management via a committee (MMTF) where time, clear directions and instructions are absolutely critical. Question is who in the MMTF has the final say and accountability for decision and outcome? This is like going to battle with a committee approach. It may work during peace time not for crisis management.


KittyBeeQ

Don't bother arguing with them. r/ singapore is pro-anti measures. They even want everyone to remove their mask. To them, their freedom to dine out, go shopping with their friends and partying is more important than the other people's lives. If a building collapse, they be the first one who salvage all their belongings instead of saving others trapped under a rubble. I believe the ones who own this subreddit is also pro-end. I heard from another forum that they banned that E word here so I'll just say the "end". I also believed the comments are downvoted by clones/bots to make others believe this is the "majority voice" so others bandwagon to support the "end". I saw a timeframe where I get 10 downvotes within a second. It's too suspicious. I don't really care because I don't farm upvotes karma so I will continue to speak out honestly on what I believe is moral and right. Like you said, this is matter of life and death. Their ambition clouds judgement. They have no solid plans before the approach the "end".


swordfishunter

I’m not here for upvotes. On the contrary I’m telling it like it is. Ye Kung Fucked up. No hiding it. And yes I see the bot pattern of downvotes, and also arguments from foreigners assisting to shape the narrative. Just to highlight the endless cycle of bringing in more foreigners to get more votes in the system for the party that fucked up. It’s happening here in a micro level.