“It's incredibly obvious, isn't it? A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids, without the knowledge of the individual, certainly without any choice. That's the way your hard-core Commie works.”
Keep in mind that this general [also said](https://taskandpurpose.com/news/air-force-general-mike-minihan-mobility/)
>Lethality matters most. When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger.
He's a nut.
Literally to be a flag officer you just have to be in the job for long enough (and be in a field where there’s openings to promote). Do slightly better than average and you’ll advance. General Flynn (q anon guy) was also a general.
I work with a lot of ex-military retirees, 55-70 years old. Some still active duty in the National Guard and you'd be horrified how prevalent Q-Anon and that ignorant bullshit is.
Just remember, it’s when you CAN kill your enemies, not when you DO kill your enemies. You just need the potential, not the follow through. Kinda a “I could…but I won’t. But I could.” Situation here.
But is he nuttier than Mike Pompeo , that as director of CIA would go around raving about rapture (and therefore, usa must help to speed up reunification of israel so world can end and his people can go to heaven)?
Some people are like this. There’s always someone or some people like this in your unit. Personally I don’t understand that someone would enjoy killing like this, and should only be done to protect your country, yourself, or someone else in danger, wether it’s a random shooter in the street or a true war, like Ukraine.
He's not wrong. He's talking about security and he's talking to soldiers, those guys whose job is to be lethal. Of course it sounds nutty to a civilian but lethality is what matters most in military and people are more secure psychologically when they know they can kill their enemies. It's why people learn martial arts. Discipline, strength, confidence and security does make your life and relationships better.
He doesn't say that soldiers (airmen I guess in this context) should enjoy killing in that quote. He says lethality is what matters most and in the military lethality is what matters most.
No, he is saying that when you know that you can kill your enemy your life and marriage will be better. Knowing you can do something and doing it is different. Confidence is knowing you can do something, not a list of things you have done.
The Afgans must not have gotten the message..
Tactics matter more than lethality - unless you only count lethality after the fact and ignore how units with vastly superior numbers and weapons manage to lose battles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Longewala
People who don’t exercise or take martial arts are going to miss what you’re saying my dude, but I understand and agree with you. It’s all contextual but some people are just looking to lash out at “le power hungry conservative military nut” and won’t see anything past.
What you’re saying is correct though and most civilians won’t understand.
I was reading a thread on Reddit yesterday where some users were outraging, because some cops wanting to pursue fitness training, even if it wasn’t provided by the force. Some users just couldn’t understand why a cop would want physical training outside of work, and why people would want to that. People would rather just talk about these mean evil psychopaths.
Look at the comments here, it’s already happening.
It depends on the situation. A pilot who needs 18 months of training and years of experience? Yes, lethality is necessary as they are so difficult to replace that skill. Infantry? 1 kill takes out one soldier. 1 casualty can remove a few guys from the engagement as they tend to the wounded (or not russian as they don’t bother), so a mix of KIAs and WIAs is typically preferable in an engagement. Unless you have close air support and can take out an entire squad or platoon immediately. For reference, you may not want to view it, but the sub dot the A-10 Warthog ( my app won’t create the link but it’s something like r/brrrrrrrrrrt ) has videos showing just what this beauty is capable of.
You know what’s even nuttier? This is the exact same stuff they teach cops in that garbage ‘warrior mindset’ training. Pretty sure David Grossman has said this nearly word for word
From the article
>A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing "a clip" at a target, and "aim for the head."
>
>In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”
Most Air Force generals know better. This is the Commander of Air Mobility Command though, might as well be the head of FedEx saying shit. He's just talking tough to try to make up for the fact that he spent his days behind the stick flying a C-130 full of rubber dog shit out of Hong Kong.
You do understand that military logistics is an art and a science, right? I’m not saying the guy is sane, apparently far from it, but let’s have some perspective please. At the least, start with the idea that those bullets don’t arrive by themselves…
Yes logistics has a very important and respectable role to play. But the guy in charge of logistics in the air force talking tough like hes the one out shooting people in the head is cringe.
Interesting, when I was in the fleet we would say “when in doubt empty the magazine”. I’m not even playing, it was even written on the wall in the chow halls.
On the range, you fire all of the boom booms so you get more boom booms next time. In the field, you conserve the boom booms so that you don't run out of boom booms in a tight situation.
Also, you wanna minimize collateral damage and all of that, so you try to just put a few rounds in the direction where you think the danger is coming from. Preferably while aiming directly at the danger. There's no need to unload entire magazines at a single target.
He knows he has sway, too. He started a talk last year saying that he has the right to ramble now that he has reached his rank (source: [Task and Purpose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Grossman_(author))). Guy thinks he can pull us into a war to satisfy his thirst to kill and make his marriage better.
If there's one thing I learned in the military, it's that there's always a bigger fish. And when you do dumb shit, it doesn't matter what your rank is, if you piss off the wrong people, that bigger fish is going to find you and swallow you whole.
Also, apparently this general is in charge of a logistical command, so he might as well be giving marching orders to penguins.
there are always bigger fish but when youre near the top like that theres a ton of bs you can get away with. this guy is like 5 steps down from potus, lots of room to inject his own bs if he wants.
Yeah them gut feelings fucked the first 20 years of my adult life. It's indirect, but trillions upon triions were wasted just to kill more civilians than actual fighters.
I'm sure all the people who've died of exposure and malnutrition and mental illness during that time are really glad that the richest country on earth was "saving democracy," killing thousands who have never had more than 5 dollars in their life.
Edit: I'm just a regular guy, no soldiering here. Sorry if it sounded that way.
And you just found out how the world works. If you are with “us”, you are a fighter for democracy and “freedom”. If you are against us, you are a terrorist and war criminal. By definition Bush is a war criminal and should be in jail but since he is an American president he gets to enjoy life and not worry about the million innocent Iraqis he killed and we are not learning. We are doing the same crap as before with smaller countries and we are aiming to do the same with China
If I read you right, you were involved in the Iraq War but realise how wrong it was. If so, I just want to compliment you for being independent-minded enough to see that. All over the world, ex-military people struggle to see their past honestly, and it’s a huge part in the continuation of conflicts such as Turkey vs Kurds or Israel vs Palestine.
By "gut feeling" you're talking about the CIA report and the authorization for the use of force passed by 296 members of congress including 40% of Democrats, right?
I get the point you're making, but the scale is incomparable. The u.s. is literally reliant on China to produce, just about everything, and China needs the u.s. to buy their shit. No other nation has the capital to fulfill that.
The fallacy is in the assertion that their authority is what makes the claim true. It's often misapplied, as subject matter experts holding authority often have better professional judgement and access to information than we do. You don't trust a doctor to diagnose your medical condition simply because his or her title is Doctor, but because of many years of education and experience in medicine.
Anyway, his timeline probably isn't too far off.
WTF is with 2025? I feel like everything bad that “may be coming” revolves around that year or “the next two years”. These fuckers are all orchestrating some kind of shit, I swear.
recession this and next year will keep us all depressed and busy, 2025 seems like a good time to have another once in a lifetime event. why not, it will have been 2 years since the last at that point
You have no idea what you are talking about. I'm in a war here in Ukraine. Our economy is barely holding on and Russia's is collapsing. War destroy's economies. During WWII Americans weren't getting rich, they were rationing fuel and materials because war just takes productive people and resources and destroys them.
The US has never benefitted economically from engaging in a war. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars left a generation without affordable education or healthcare as those trillions of dollars were just turned to nothing but corpses and bombed out cities. You could argue that war is good for a tiny number of war profiteers (defense contactors) but war is never good for an economy as a whole.
The recession that made gdp grow by 2.9% in 2022? Seems like a good recession
Seriously, people that still talk about recession are probably those that have never searched up anything relating economics
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1618603414329626626?t=zA-UVYF-BsMS7fi8OUnQxA&s=19
We have been embroiled in a ~~proxy~~ cold war with China for a good 2\~ years now in relation to semiconduction goods. The whole ordeal involving Taiwan is much, much more than just a dick measuring contest or some power hungry old man such as Putin is with Ukraine.
The situation involving Taiwan is and has been no laughing matter. All we are seeing now is an escalation of economical warfare that has every potential to turn into a physical conflict.
Proxy war
I dont think that word means what you think it means
Us giving Ukraine $22B in military aid alone (50B if you count economic and humanitarian) is a proxy war. A lot of people don’t want to say that we’re in a proxy war, but I think it’s important to label it how it is. We’re not helping Ukraine out of the good of our heart, we’re trying to expend Russian resources through a proxy engagement to gain a strategic edge on them.
We are not doing the same to China in any sort of way currently.
It's not really a proxy war though. Russia is directly fighting and not using another nation's military to fight for them. It's a direct war that Russia (who would need a proxy to fight for them to make it a proxy war) started with an invasion that we cannot get directly involved with due to the risk of MAD protocols and the fact that Ukraine was not a NATO member. Regardless, a proxy war needs two proxies to fight, which is not the case in Ukraine.
That’s actually not true, a proxy war is an armed conflict between two states or non-state actors, **one or both of which** act at the instigation or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities. In order for a conflict to be considered a proxy war, there must be a direct, long-term relationship between external actors and the belligerents involved. The aforementioned relationship usually takes the form of funding, military training, arms, or other forms of material assistance which assist a belligerent party in sustaining its war effort.
I think the debating point is whether Ukraine acts on behalf of the US, because they don’t, but I’d still label it a proxy engagement. Russia started this war and now they’re getting punished for it.
A proxy war is not bad or cowardly thing, it’s a strategic form of war that Russia would do to us if they had the same opportunity.
How would they? The moment China starts landing forces, the tsmc foundries will be blown up. It'll be a pyrrhic victory where all they accomplish is wasting resources and lives and lose all market access to the west.
Im not debating what we’re heated with china over, we’re just not in a proxy with them. The stakes are extremely high, but again, it’s more of a cold war than a proxy war.
This is correct. We're not in a proxy war because there isn't yet hostilities between China and a 3rd party who the us is supplying with weapons, intelligence, etc.
If China invaded Taiwan and the US only gave support in the way its doing to Ukraine that's a proxy war. But China isn't fighting anyone being supplied by the US.
They have this plan to be as independent as possible by 2025 from foreign reliance.
Also Xi Jinping ordered their army to prepare for a war late last year.
China is not preparing for imminent war, their military spending shows that. No country intending to fight a major war spends so little. 2% of GDP.
Xi Jinping said "prepare for war" meaning "actually train properly".
2% is other countries' estimates, not their own reporting.
IISS (British) and SIPRI (Sweden) both put China's military spending at 1.7-2% over the past 5 years.
Maintaining the status quo will always be more profitable over starting a direct war *with the United States*.
The last time we saw a major power actually attack another major power was Nazi Germany, and that was because their leaders were convinced communism, the greatest threat to profits, needed to be destroyed.
The people at the top just want to keep partying. There won’t be a war, they have so very little to gain and so much money to lose.
It's about windows of opportunity. The west (including the democratic nations of Asia) is gearing up for a big war due to Russia's brazen war of aggression in Ukraine. Also, the west is building their own semiconductor capacity.
This will make it impossible for China to take Taiwan in a couple of years time. The democratic world will then be able to resist, and will.
China would of course also fail today, but totalitarians gonna do their stupid totalitarian mistakes.
This is complete nonsense. China is not close to peak strength, there is no such "window of opportunity". China has spent only 2% of its GDP on the military, it has a lot more room to grow.
China has a 2030-2035 nuclear weapons plan, does not make sense if they want to fight in 2025. They would be mad-rushing militarisation today if they wanted to fight soon. They are still taking it slow.
China is about to face a hugely declining population over the next 20 years and their young men of military age demographic is going to get decimated. They do have a window.
Who knew that limiting 2 people to only make 1 replacement person would hurt your population numbers?!?
>Who knew that limiting 2 people to only make 1 replacement person would hurt your population numbers?!?
They've removed that restriction but people still aren't having kids due to rising cost of living.
It has reached it, it's a simple fact.
Chinas 1-3% growth over the medium term is now advanced country level.
It's population is also declining.
Btw, china had to cut semiconductor subsidies because of very tight budget constraints, 2% is the best they can do right now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/battered-by-covid-china-hits-pause-on-giant-chip-spending
>Btw, china had to cut semiconductor subsidies because of very tight budget constraints, 2% is the best they can do right now.
This is rubbish, no country's ability to militarise caps at 2%, they just don't want to that's all. Much poorer countrues have spent far higher. China spent 8-10% in the 60s when large portions of the population were starving.
>Chinas 1-3% growth over the medium term is now advanced country level.
Even if China's economy has peaked its military has not. Same GDP but 4% spending is still double. The USSR had 4 times smaller economy than China but had a monstrous military due to spending 10-15% of GDP on defence.
Additionally China's population is declining, so as time progresses their ability to fight an armed conflict that will require a large amount of manpower will wane.
Just don't think you'll get many 23 year old Google employees willing to die for a cohort of geriatric aged generals, willing to see them die so they they can get their testosterone boast, think we're onto that now.
How old is Putins GF? 30 years younger right? He NEEDS that booster, it's pretty obvious.
Times have changed. We're onto to it now.
There’s some bizarre leaps being made in this thread today.
There’s not all that much difference between an army of 50 million and an army of only 48 million.
Yes their population is declining but it’s not falling off a cliff! Reality rarely exists in the extremes.
relax, china's naval improvements won't be ready until 2028 at the earliest. most warhawks are predicting the supposed invasion of taiwan after they got ships that can actually do it.
The USAF is pretty notorious for its higher officer coming from some weird Christian 'end of the world' type sects. To the point that is you aren't in their little cult you won't make it to the high ranks.I am not surprised this chairforce office is running his mouth over a subject he has no authority over. In a proper world he would be quietly retired, in the world we inhabit he is protected by the self serving apparatus that is the professional officer corps.
So clips still exist. They just are used to make it easier to load the magazine that goes into the weapon. They definitely don’t go into the weapon anymore, and I believe you are right WW2 is probably the last time clips were widely used in war.
The head of Air Mobility Command. Lol. Dude is in charge of a bunch of cargo planes and somehow we are listening to his prediction on overall warfare policy? This is like listening to Bubba, manager of the local Chevy dealer talk about corporate strategy and how they're going to compete with Ford.
Seriously, how do I, someone who’s only shot a couple guns, know more about proper gun terms than a 4 star general. Doesn’t matter if it’s Airforce, he’s a fucking top general. If he’s this stupid I definitely don’t trust his gut feeling on China
Exactly this. This is one of those fuckers that comes in to a unit that is working perfectly, and changes some procedural bullshit that doesn't do anything but piss off the working ranks. All so they can justify some future promotion.
I think the thing he said, and the way he said it, is fucking inane, and in the 12 odd years I was in I never worked for a 1, 2, 3, 4* or minister who would express it like that.
Guaranteed he’s a being laughed at in crew rooms across the service.
China has multiple regime-ending national issues right now.
Look into Chinese demographics. That alone tells us that it is literally impossible for them to be a nation in the next ten years. And please, before all of you heroes start calling me on my “BS”, do SOME looking into it.
They also are about to suffer catastrophic food shortages due to fertilizer disruptions from the Russian/Ukrainian War. They are also economically endangered from their financial system being over leveraged by an order of magnitude more than our 08 collapse.
They also are militarily shit. They have 3 small aircraft carriers. We have 14 super carriers and 9 small ones. Of their carriers, one is a refurbished Russian casino ship from the Soviet era that is prone to catching fire, one is a copy of that casino ship and the third is an untested prototype.
They are entirely dependent on exports for food and energy.
We’re fine. They are screwed whether we do anything or now. In fact, if we just go home and levy sanctions we trigger a famine that kills millions in a few months without firing a single munition.
PS: Video for reference. Long, but one of the best vids you could probably watch right now for info.
https://youtu.be/qWyhKobyM68
I knew this would be a Zeihan link before even clicking on it! I love his work, but I can't help shake the feeling that he's telling his audience what they want to hear.
He won’t be 100% right (no one ever is), but he has enough data of the connected catalysts that he definitely won’t be mostly wrong. When he lays it all out, it’s pretty damning data. You could nitpick data points but your efforts won’t largely change the outcome. The demographics alone is the most unforgiving information.
Something tells me this guy has been considered a nut job. If you look at his promotion dates, he only got promoted once during the Obama administration. He probably hit his move up or move out date. He earned two stars under Trump and got another in the beginning of the Biden administration, I’m thinking he had his packet put together before Trump left office. This guy climbs ranks like crazy during republican administrations and stalls during democratic ones.
China thoughts.
They have 1.4 billion people.
They value Education. Education. Education.
World leaders in conversion to Green Energy.
They LOVE LOVE LOVE American media and Lady GaGa.
Best students I ever had. Chinese exchange. All they did is study, study, study. My American students (not all, but many) started binge drinking on Friday night, crawled in on Monday morning, they could not remember the weekend.
The Chinese grad students? They NEVER left the library. The entire weekend. That's where they lived.
Maybe we should really try to be friends with China? They seem a lot like us. And they really loved basketball, Hip Hop and cheesy pizza.
Source: Former grad school teacher, many Chinese exchange students in my CompSci classes.
PS, and for some reason, the girls, LOVED Orlando Bloom. I could never figure that one out.
Edit: tl;dr: Lets all be friends. And move our world forward. We can get beyond this boys being boys thing right? Does that not get boring after awhile? Put on some Gaga and dance! :-)
Most people don’t have a problem with the Chinese people, it’s the Chinese government that’s the problem. with their social score shenanigans and Uyghur Concentration camps. They are doing some pretty horrible things. I mean they’re harvesting these peoples organs.
My atheist self is starting to believe all that shit my minister father babbled about was right. The world ended in 2012 like Mayans predicted - the rapture came and took the good ones. Us assholes are here to fester and eat the world alive.
What is the velocity and rate of fire for modern clip projectiles? And is it 10 round or 30 round clips you’re sending down range?
I think I could hit the target tossing my clips seven meters, but that’s still not very efficient or effective.
Of all the inaccurate colloquial sayings, terms, and phrases, anything involving guns will get every armchair "but acthually" enthusiast lining up for their unrelated crack at someone just trying to get a point across
Why do they let people from the chair force speak in public? Just fly your planes to the place the real military tells you to and stop talking about starting wars with global superpowers.
No offense. No expert, never served, but the son of an enlisted IS Air Force Vet that did his 20 and got fed up.
What the fuck does the Air Force know about hand to hand? They have PJs, and SPs, OK. But if the USA went to war with China it would either be World Ending or a limited and stand off engagement. Nobody is getting that close in that service to see the whites of their eyes.
Soooo, what I'm hearing is, if Russia doesn't finish the job (destroying the earth and eradicating the human population, China will?
I always knew I'd die young. At least I got to be a mom.
An Air Force General would be the one to say “clip” the thing to hold bullets before you put them into a magazine. Clips did go directly in the weapon in like WW2, but not in modern weaponry. While a layman shouldn’t be expected to know this, someone who spent 30+ years in the military should definitely know this. Definitely hits his credibility a bit.
No matter which top general is saying this. China is not looking for war. This prediction is not based on Chinese MO.
Not all countries think of war. The Chinese are on the other side of the globe. They have zero interest in a conflict. They are going to overtake the US by simply by outmanufacturing them. They know it. They will not rush it.
They have relatively little conflict in their internal politics. The dont have partisanship. They are relatively monocultural. They have everything to lose by engaging in war.
They got back Hong Kong from the British merelythrough patience.
Eventually they will unite with Taiwan by just waiting it out. Those who fled mainland China are 80+ years. The two Chinas speak the same language and have the same culture. Chinese infants will live in a one China world.
I suppose Officers are taught different. Everyone knows it's "Two to the chest, one to the head." If you do that you don't need that much ammo.
Shocked both my parents after basic, "Didn't realize the Air Force was teaching that now." was my Dad's response.
This is a bit of a misunderstanding of the concept of national debt.
It's not like countries are flat out wiring loans to each other these days (in normal circumstances). Governments release debt instruments that people buy on an open market. You have a treasury bond? You're holding a share of national debt of the United States. These come with conditions attached, so it's not like someone can roll up on the treasury with a wheelbarrow of these and say "gib monies".
It's actually Japan but China holds the second largest amount of US treasuries, so yeah. Your point stands. The interesting thing is that China is not buying new treasuries.
There are always three news from USA:
-School shooting
-Police killing black people
-Let’s start a war
It is impressive how people look after that country and think it is a good place in the world.
Xi xingping says he is the same type of criminal as putin:
Xi Jinping Doubles Down on His Putin Bet. ‘I Have a Similar Personality to Yours.’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinping-putin-china-russia-relations-11671030896?reflink=integratedwebview_share
Figured why they support Russia as unlimited friends and are all going to war because they countries are declining rapidly and this is their window
Rule 2 - Submissions must be futurology related or future focused.
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Gentlemen! There’s no fighting in the War Room!
We must not allow a mineshaft gap!
Thank you, this is the comment I was looking for
" Sir, you can't let him in here. He'll see everything. He'll see the big board!"
The Mineshaft Gap!!!
Lol I immediately thought of Dr. Strangelove as well
Gen Jack Ripper! Yes!
Have you ever seen a communist drink water?
“It's incredibly obvious, isn't it? A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids, without the knowledge of the individual, certainly without any choice. That's the way your hard-core Commie works.”
“How I learned to love the Jet.”
*Generals gathered in their masses* *Just like witches at black masses* *Evil minds that plot destruction* *Sorcerer of death's construction*
Oh lord yeeah
In the fields, the bodies burning As the war machine keeps turning Death and hatred to mankind Poisoning their brainwashed minds Oh lord, yeah!
Politicians hide themselves away They only started the war Why should they go out to fight They leave that all to the poor Yeah
Time will tell on their power minds Making war just for fun Treating people just like pawns in chess Wait till their judgement day comes, yeah!
Heard that as “treating people like pork sausages” for many years
Time will tell on their power minds Making war just for fun Treating people just like pawns in chess Wait till their judgement day comes, yeah!
Keep in mind that this general [also said](https://taskandpurpose.com/news/air-force-general-mike-minihan-mobility/) >Lethality matters most. When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger. He's a nut.
Oh god this man has power
Literally to be a flag officer you just have to be in the job for long enough (and be in a field where there’s openings to promote). Do slightly better than average and you’ll advance. General Flynn (q anon guy) was also a general.
I work with a lot of ex-military retirees, 55-70 years old. Some still active duty in the National Guard and you'd be horrified how prevalent Q-Anon and that ignorant bullshit is.
I was trying counseling but maybe I should follow this guy's advice...
Just remember, it’s when you CAN kill your enemies, not when you DO kill your enemies. You just need the potential, not the follow through. Kinda a “I could…but I won’t. But I could.” Situation here.
Just ate one of my enemies. I feel so powerful now. Got any more bath salts? /s
But is he nuttier than Mike Pompeo , that as director of CIA would go around raving about rapture (and therefore, usa must help to speed up reunification of israel so world can end and his people can go to heaven)?
Some people are like this. There’s always someone or some people like this in your unit. Personally I don’t understand that someone would enjoy killing like this, and should only be done to protect your country, yourself, or someone else in danger, wether it’s a random shooter in the street or a true war, like Ukraine.
He's not wrong. He's talking about security and he's talking to soldiers, those guys whose job is to be lethal. Of course it sounds nutty to a civilian but lethality is what matters most in military and people are more secure psychologically when they know they can kill their enemies. It's why people learn martial arts. Discipline, strength, confidence and security does make your life and relationships better.
Martial arts and aiming for the head dont help much during a nuclear war, except for ravaging co-nationals in the wasteland after it's over
Learning discipline, strength, and confidence is different from enjoying killing.
He doesn't say that soldiers (airmen I guess in this context) should enjoy killing in that quote. He says lethality is what matters most and in the military lethality is what matters most.
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No, he is saying that when you know that you can kill your enemy your life and marriage will be better. Knowing you can do something and doing it is different. Confidence is knowing you can do something, not a list of things you have done.
When you "can" kill your enemy is the fulcrum point here.
The Afgans must not have gotten the message.. Tactics matter more than lethality - unless you only count lethality after the fact and ignore how units with vastly superior numbers and weapons manage to lose battles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Longewala
People who don’t exercise or take martial arts are going to miss what you’re saying my dude, but I understand and agree with you. It’s all contextual but some people are just looking to lash out at “le power hungry conservative military nut” and won’t see anything past. What you’re saying is correct though and most civilians won’t understand. I was reading a thread on Reddit yesterday where some users were outraging, because some cops wanting to pursue fitness training, even if it wasn’t provided by the force. Some users just couldn’t understand why a cop would want physical training outside of work, and why people would want to that. People would rather just talk about these mean evil psychopaths. Look at the comments here, it’s already happening.
I prefer a callous psychopath who does not think anything of life or death over a sadist who loves killing.
A pilot doesn't really see 'death' in the same way as an infantryman does.
It depends on the situation. A pilot who needs 18 months of training and years of experience? Yes, lethality is necessary as they are so difficult to replace that skill. Infantry? 1 kill takes out one soldier. 1 casualty can remove a few guys from the engagement as they tend to the wounded (or not russian as they don’t bother), so a mix of KIAs and WIAs is typically preferable in an engagement. Unless you have close air support and can take out an entire squad or platoon immediately. For reference, you may not want to view it, but the sub dot the A-10 Warthog ( my app won’t create the link but it’s something like r/brrrrrrrrrrt ) has videos showing just what this beauty is capable of.
You know what’s even nuttier? This is the exact same stuff they teach cops in that garbage ‘warrior mindset’ training. Pretty sure David Grossman has said this nearly word for word
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From the article >A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing "a clip" at a target, and "aim for the head." > >In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”
A clip? Who says that in the military?
A person who never carries a weapon. So an Air Force general
Most Air Force generals know better. This is the Commander of Air Mobility Command though, might as well be the head of FedEx saying shit. He's just talking tough to try to make up for the fact that he spent his days behind the stick flying a C-130 full of rubber dog shit out of Hong Kong.
Penny Benjamin?
Exactly. I started laughing when I read he was from AMC.
You do understand that military logistics is an art and a science, right? I’m not saying the guy is sane, apparently far from it, but let’s have some perspective please. At the least, start with the idea that those bullets don’t arrive by themselves…
Yes logistics has a very important and respectable role to play. But the guy in charge of logistics in the air force talking tough like hes the one out shooting people in the head is cringe.
Ok, this makes more sense now. The ones that talk the most shit are usually the most impotent/have even seen action.
Isn’t it pronounced, Chair Force?
We say mag, and emptying the mag is never instructed
Interesting, when I was in the fleet we would say “when in doubt empty the magazine”. I’m not even playing, it was even written on the wall in the chow halls.
Accuracy by volume
So which one is the right thing to do?
On the range, you fire all of the boom booms so you get more boom booms next time. In the field, you conserve the boom booms so that you don't run out of boom booms in a tight situation. Also, you wanna minimize collateral damage and all of that, so you try to just put a few rounds in the direction where you think the danger is coming from. Preferably while aiming directly at the danger. There's no need to unload entire magazines at a single target.
Clips are what civis put in their hair
This is called a magazine.
Airmen that don't shoot
Chair Force people who never actually fire their weapons outside the range.
GUT FEELING My goodness... Might as well consult an astrology forecast The scary thing is that these people actually have a lot of sway and power
He knows he has sway, too. He started a talk last year saying that he has the right to ramble now that he has reached his rank (source: [Task and Purpose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Grossman_(author))). Guy thinks he can pull us into a war to satisfy his thirst to kill and make his marriage better.
If there's one thing I learned in the military, it's that there's always a bigger fish. And when you do dumb shit, it doesn't matter what your rank is, if you piss off the wrong people, that bigger fish is going to find you and swallow you whole. Also, apparently this general is in charge of a logistical command, so he might as well be giving marching orders to penguins.
there are always bigger fish but when youre near the top like that theres a ton of bs you can get away with. this guy is like 5 steps down from potus, lots of room to inject his own bs if he wants.
I ate a past its date spicy pizza yesterday. I can tell you, my gut feeling today is bad. Real bad.
You better aim for the head.
Must've been one hell of a past date pizza if it grew a head.
George W loved to listen to his gut feelings. So we invaded Iraq.
Yeah them gut feelings fucked the first 20 years of my adult life. It's indirect, but trillions upon triions were wasted just to kill more civilians than actual fighters. I'm sure all the people who've died of exposure and malnutrition and mental illness during that time are really glad that the richest country on earth was "saving democracy," killing thousands who have never had more than 5 dollars in their life. Edit: I'm just a regular guy, no soldiering here. Sorry if it sounded that way.
And you just found out how the world works. If you are with “us”, you are a fighter for democracy and “freedom”. If you are against us, you are a terrorist and war criminal. By definition Bush is a war criminal and should be in jail but since he is an American president he gets to enjoy life and not worry about the million innocent Iraqis he killed and we are not learning. We are doing the same crap as before with smaller countries and we are aiming to do the same with China
If I read you right, you were involved in the Iraq War but realise how wrong it was. If so, I just want to compliment you for being independent-minded enough to see that. All over the world, ex-military people struggle to see their past honestly, and it’s a huge part in the continuation of conflicts such as Turkey vs Kurds or Israel vs Palestine.
By "gut feeling" you're talking about the CIA report and the authorization for the use of force passed by 296 members of congress including 40% of Democrats, right?
Back then everyone in America had a trigger finger, if intelligence pinky swore Canada did 9/11 everyone would want to invade them too.
I know this sounds absolutely crazy, but what *if* a lifelong dedicated professional near the top of the ranks knows more than you do?
Like in the same capacity Michael Flynn did?
Yea, there are plenty of seasoned military folks who have succumbed to political brain-rot.
Combined with the fact that when you *are* the hammer everything starts looking a lot like nails
they have not gotten 'their' war yet
The counter argument for this is the guy spends all his time and energy prepping for war so he sees the possibility for war everywhere.
You're right but america and China just too greedy and dependent on each other to go to war
It's not anyone's first choice but I promise you it's a realistic possibility
Yes, because in 1914, Britain and Germany were each others largest trading partner, far too dependent to go to war..
I get the point you're making, but the scale is incomparable. The u.s. is literally reliant on China to produce, just about everything, and China needs the u.s. to buy their shit. No other nation has the capital to fulfill that.
> The appeal to authority fallacy is the logical fallacy of saying a claim is true simply because an authority figure made it
The fallacy is in the assertion that their authority is what makes the claim true. It's often misapplied, as subject matter experts holding authority often have better professional judgement and access to information than we do. You don't trust a doctor to diagnose your medical condition simply because his or her title is Doctor, but because of many years of education and experience in medicine. Anyway, his timeline probably isn't too far off.
Lol “gut feeling” is intel they can’t talk about on national television.
Like with the WMD in Iraq, if course
"wmd" is intel they cant talk about on national television.
No WMD just turned out to be bs they used to invade another country
that’s what they said, WMD’s were the official story.
Yeah, Intel called,”I was a lot of right wing media”
He’s probably basing this on escalating encounters is my guess.
No General in the US military is going to use the term "clip"! We haven't used clips since Korea!
And this should be a good reason to fire said general.
WTF is with 2025? I feel like everything bad that “may be coming” revolves around that year or “the next two years”. These fuckers are all orchestrating some kind of shit, I swear.
recession this and next year will keep us all depressed and busy, 2025 seems like a good time to have another once in a lifetime event. why not, it will have been 2 years since the last at that point
Yup war is good for the economy, always has been.
You have no idea what you are talking about. I'm in a war here in Ukraine. Our economy is barely holding on and Russia's is collapsing. War destroy's economies. During WWII Americans weren't getting rich, they were rationing fuel and materials because war just takes productive people and resources and destroys them.
Sorry I should clarify, war tends to be good for the US economy. Obviously its not for the frontline country
The US has never benefitted economically from engaging in a war. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars left a generation without affordable education or healthcare as those trillions of dollars were just turned to nothing but corpses and bombed out cities. You could argue that war is good for a tiny number of war profiteers (defense contactors) but war is never good for an economy as a whole.
The recession that made gdp grow by 2.9% in 2022? Seems like a good recession Seriously, people that still talk about recession are probably those that have never searched up anything relating economics https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1618603414329626626?t=zA-UVYF-BsMS7fi8OUnQxA&s=19
We have been embroiled in a ~~proxy~~ cold war with China for a good 2\~ years now in relation to semiconduction goods. The whole ordeal involving Taiwan is much, much more than just a dick measuring contest or some power hungry old man such as Putin is with Ukraine. The situation involving Taiwan is and has been no laughing matter. All we are seeing now is an escalation of economical warfare that has every potential to turn into a physical conflict.
Proxy war I dont think that word means what you think it means Us giving Ukraine $22B in military aid alone (50B if you count economic and humanitarian) is a proxy war. A lot of people don’t want to say that we’re in a proxy war, but I think it’s important to label it how it is. We’re not helping Ukraine out of the good of our heart, we’re trying to expend Russian resources through a proxy engagement to gain a strategic edge on them. We are not doing the same to China in any sort of way currently.
It's not really a proxy war though. Russia is directly fighting and not using another nation's military to fight for them. It's a direct war that Russia (who would need a proxy to fight for them to make it a proxy war) started with an invasion that we cannot get directly involved with due to the risk of MAD protocols and the fact that Ukraine was not a NATO member. Regardless, a proxy war needs two proxies to fight, which is not the case in Ukraine.
That’s actually not true, a proxy war is an armed conflict between two states or non-state actors, **one or both of which** act at the instigation or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities. In order for a conflict to be considered a proxy war, there must be a direct, long-term relationship between external actors and the belligerents involved. The aforementioned relationship usually takes the form of funding, military training, arms, or other forms of material assistance which assist a belligerent party in sustaining its war effort. I think the debating point is whether Ukraine acts on behalf of the US, because they don’t, but I’d still label it a proxy engagement. Russia started this war and now they’re getting punished for it. A proxy war is not bad or cowardly thing, it’s a strategic form of war that Russia would do to us if they had the same opportunity.
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How would they? The moment China starts landing forces, the tsmc foundries will be blown up. It'll be a pyrrhic victory where all they accomplish is wasting resources and lives and lose all market access to the west.
Probably one of the reasons they haven't done so yet. It'd be only for show as everything of value would be destroyed.
Im not debating what we’re heated with china over, we’re just not in a proxy with them. The stakes are extremely high, but again, it’s more of a cold war than a proxy war.
This is correct. We're not in a proxy war because there isn't yet hostilities between China and a 3rd party who the us is supplying with weapons, intelligence, etc. If China invaded Taiwan and the US only gave support in the way its doing to Ukraine that's a proxy war. But China isn't fighting anyone being supplied by the US.
Imo It's just a nice round numbers for conspiracy-minded people to latch onto.
They have this plan to be as independent as possible by 2025 from foreign reliance. Also Xi Jinping ordered their army to prepare for a war late last year.
China is not preparing for imminent war, their military spending shows that. No country intending to fight a major war spends so little. 2% of GDP. Xi Jinping said "prepare for war" meaning "actually train properly".
We don't know what countries spend on military, only what they report publicly as claiming to be spending on military.
2% is other countries' estimates, not their own reporting. IISS (British) and SIPRI (Sweden) both put China's military spending at 1.7-2% over the past 5 years.
Maintaining the status quo will always be more profitable over starting a direct war *with the United States*. The last time we saw a major power actually attack another major power was Nazi Germany, and that was because their leaders were convinced communism, the greatest threat to profits, needed to be destroyed. The people at the top just want to keep partying. There won’t be a war, they have so very little to gain and so much money to lose.
It's about windows of opportunity. The west (including the democratic nations of Asia) is gearing up for a big war due to Russia's brazen war of aggression in Ukraine. Also, the west is building their own semiconductor capacity. This will make it impossible for China to take Taiwan in a couple of years time. The democratic world will then be able to resist, and will. China would of course also fail today, but totalitarians gonna do their stupid totalitarian mistakes.
This is complete nonsense. China is not close to peak strength, there is no such "window of opportunity". China has spent only 2% of its GDP on the military, it has a lot more room to grow. China has a 2030-2035 nuclear weapons plan, does not make sense if they want to fight in 2025. They would be mad-rushing militarisation today if they wanted to fight soon. They are still taking it slow.
China is about to face a hugely declining population over the next 20 years and their young men of military age demographic is going to get decimated. They do have a window. Who knew that limiting 2 people to only make 1 replacement person would hurt your population numbers?!?
>Who knew that limiting 2 people to only make 1 replacement person would hurt your population numbers?!? They've removed that restriction but people still aren't having kids due to rising cost of living.
It's about avoiding the big fight. It's better to present the democratic world with a fait\* accompli and do some nuclear sabre rattling. edit: oopsie
It has reached it, it's a simple fact. Chinas 1-3% growth over the medium term is now advanced country level. It's population is also declining. Btw, china had to cut semiconductor subsidies because of very tight budget constraints, 2% is the best they can do right now. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/battered-by-covid-china-hits-pause-on-giant-chip-spending
>Btw, china had to cut semiconductor subsidies because of very tight budget constraints, 2% is the best they can do right now. This is rubbish, no country's ability to militarise caps at 2%, they just don't want to that's all. Much poorer countrues have spent far higher. China spent 8-10% in the 60s when large portions of the population were starving. >Chinas 1-3% growth over the medium term is now advanced country level. Even if China's economy has peaked its military has not. Same GDP but 4% spending is still double. The USSR had 4 times smaller economy than China but had a monstrous military due to spending 10-15% of GDP on defence.
Additionally China's population is declining, so as time progresses their ability to fight an armed conflict that will require a large amount of manpower will wane.
Just don't think you'll get many 23 year old Google employees willing to die for a cohort of geriatric aged generals, willing to see them die so they they can get their testosterone boast, think we're onto that now. How old is Putins GF? 30 years younger right? He NEEDS that booster, it's pretty obvious. Times have changed. We're onto to it now.
There’s some bizarre leaps being made in this thread today. There’s not all that much difference between an army of 50 million and an army of only 48 million. Yes their population is declining but it’s not falling off a cliff! Reality rarely exists in the extremes.
relax, china's naval improvements won't be ready until 2028 at the earliest. most warhawks are predicting the supposed invasion of taiwan after they got ships that can actually do it.
2025 is the new 2012 man. Remember how fixated people were on the 2012 Mayan doomsday for like 5-10 years prior?
The USAF is pretty notorious for its higher officer coming from some weird Christian 'end of the world' type sects. To the point that is you aren't in their little cult you won't make it to the high ranks.I am not surprised this chairforce office is running his mouth over a subject he has no authority over. In a proper world he would be quietly retired, in the world we inhabit he is protected by the self serving apparatus that is the professional officer corps.
Air force... lol. They are magazines not clips, and the general doctrine it to fire at center mass, not the head. Joystick jockeys amiright?
Last time an army rifle used “clips” was WW2/Korea if I am not mistaken. (M1 Garand)
So clips still exist. They just are used to make it easier to load the magazine that goes into the weapon. They definitely don’t go into the weapon anymore, and I believe you are right WW2 is probably the last time clips were widely used in war.
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No you are definitely right. They didn’t get replaced until the late 1950’s so it was probably heavily used in the Korean war, but I’m no historian.
I always preferred the term Chair Force
The head of Air Mobility Command. Lol. Dude is in charge of a bunch of cargo planes and somehow we are listening to his prediction on overall warfare policy? This is like listening to Bubba, manager of the local Chevy dealer talk about corporate strategy and how they're going to compete with Ford.
Clips are what civvies put in their hair. These are magazines. -Bangalore
Goated character. I hope whoever was responsible for her design was promoted.
Seriously, how do I, someone who’s only shot a couple guns, know more about proper gun terms than a 4 star general. Doesn’t matter if it’s Airforce, he’s a fucking top general. If he’s this stupid I definitely don’t trust his gut feeling on China
He doesn't do guns. If he was talking about air combat, I'd take his word at face value.
That's the thing, you absolutely don't
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Probably was drunk on scotch watching Top Gun
Exactly this. This is one of those fuckers that comes in to a unit that is working perfectly, and changes some procedural bullshit that doesn't do anything but piss off the working ranks. All so they can justify some future promotion.
You think that a 4 star general is not qualified to make a prediction simply because he CURRENTLY commands AMC? That's a really stupid thing to say.
I think the thing he said, and the way he said it, is fucking inane, and in the 12 odd years I was in I never worked for a 1, 2, 3, 4* or minister who would express it like that. Guaranteed he’s a being laughed at in crew rooms across the service.
If he's right, everyone will think he's a genius for his precognition. If he's wrong, everyone will just forget that he ever said this.
China has multiple regime-ending national issues right now. Look into Chinese demographics. That alone tells us that it is literally impossible for them to be a nation in the next ten years. And please, before all of you heroes start calling me on my “BS”, do SOME looking into it. They also are about to suffer catastrophic food shortages due to fertilizer disruptions from the Russian/Ukrainian War. They are also economically endangered from their financial system being over leveraged by an order of magnitude more than our 08 collapse. They also are militarily shit. They have 3 small aircraft carriers. We have 14 super carriers and 9 small ones. Of their carriers, one is a refurbished Russian casino ship from the Soviet era that is prone to catching fire, one is a copy of that casino ship and the third is an untested prototype. They are entirely dependent on exports for food and energy. We’re fine. They are screwed whether we do anything or now. In fact, if we just go home and levy sanctions we trigger a famine that kills millions in a few months without firing a single munition. PS: Video for reference. Long, but one of the best vids you could probably watch right now for info. https://youtu.be/qWyhKobyM68
I knew this would be a Zeihan link before even clicking on it! I love his work, but I can't help shake the feeling that he's telling his audience what they want to hear.
He won’t be 100% right (no one ever is), but he has enough data of the connected catalysts that he definitely won’t be mostly wrong. When he lays it all out, it’s pretty damning data. You could nitpick data points but your efforts won’t largely change the outcome. The demographics alone is the most unforgiving information.
Typical Air Force. Doesn't even know basic small arms terminology after an entire career.
Air Mobility Command is where the AF sends all the top talent.
Something tells me this guy has been considered a nut job. If you look at his promotion dates, he only got promoted once during the Obama administration. He probably hit his move up or move out date. He earned two stars under Trump and got another in the beginning of the Biden administration, I’m thinking he had his packet put together before Trump left office. This guy climbs ranks like crazy during republican administrations and stalls during democratic ones.
WTF would an Air Force general know about close combat, my dog predicts that we will be at war with Antarctica in 3045…
The best things in life: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentations of their women.
We're going to be fighting with everyone except with our own country's racist bigots and corrupt politicians who'd rather let our son's die.
China thoughts. They have 1.4 billion people. They value Education. Education. Education. World leaders in conversion to Green Energy. They LOVE LOVE LOVE American media and Lady GaGa. Best students I ever had. Chinese exchange. All they did is study, study, study. My American students (not all, but many) started binge drinking on Friday night, crawled in on Monday morning, they could not remember the weekend. The Chinese grad students? They NEVER left the library. The entire weekend. That's where they lived. Maybe we should really try to be friends with China? They seem a lot like us. And they really loved basketball, Hip Hop and cheesy pizza. Source: Former grad school teacher, many Chinese exchange students in my CompSci classes. PS, and for some reason, the girls, LOVED Orlando Bloom. I could never figure that one out. Edit: tl;dr: Lets all be friends. And move our world forward. We can get beyond this boys being boys thing right? Does that not get boring after awhile? Put on some Gaga and dance! :-)
unfortunately.. governments are blind when they think in terms of national government....
Finally a sane comment in a sea of madness
Most people don’t have a problem with the Chinese people, it’s the Chinese government that’s the problem. with their social score shenanigans and Uyghur Concentration camps. They are doing some pretty horrible things. I mean they’re harvesting these peoples organs.
But they loooove Lady Gaga!
It’s not the people but the government.
Ever since all the year 2000 doomsday predictions blew away, one never believes in these predictions
2012. The world was supposed to end in 2012, remember? Or, you know, we just update our calendars.
My atheist self is starting to believe all that shit my minister father babbled about was right. The world ended in 2012 like Mayans predicted - the rapture came and took the good ones. Us assholes are here to fester and eat the world alive.
At this rate we are not getting to see that magical 2030 WEF deadline, such a shame...
Aw but damn, I wanted to own nothing and be happy.
Same. Now I own stuff but not that happy. Can’t wait for that great reset that will make me happy
You’ll be so much healthier too, due to eating all ze bugs instead of cows.
to quote a great speaker : clips is what civies use in their hair, this is called a magazine.
What is the velocity and rate of fire for modern clip projectiles? And is it 10 round or 30 round clips you’re sending down range? I think I could hit the target tossing my clips seven meters, but that’s still not very efficient or effective.
This isn’t that. The general didn’t conflate clip and magazine. He conflated clip and round. You don’t send a clip (or a magazine) at a target.
Of all the inaccurate colloquial sayings, terms, and phrases, anything involving guns will get every armchair "but acthually" enthusiast lining up for their unrelated crack at someone just trying to get a point across
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And get back to fight as soon as you spawn again? "Aim for the head" indeed
Leave it to a general to not know the difference between a magazine and a clip.
Oh wait, he had a FEELING about it?!? Well then…let slip the dogs of war! 🙄
Old people are adorable thinking the world still works like it did back when.
Why do they let people from the chair force speak in public? Just fly your planes to the place the real military tells you to and stop talking about starting wars with global superpowers.
If American air force officers have occasion to use their sidearms, then many, many things have gone horrifically wrong.
No offense. No expert, never served, but the son of an enlisted IS Air Force Vet that did his 20 and got fed up. What the fuck does the Air Force know about hand to hand? They have PJs, and SPs, OK. But if the USA went to war with China it would either be World Ending or a limited and stand off engagement. Nobody is getting that close in that service to see the whites of their eyes.
Soooo, what I'm hearing is, if Russia doesn't finish the job (destroying the earth and eradicating the human population, China will? I always knew I'd die young. At least I got to be a mom.
An Air Force General would be the one to say “clip” the thing to hold bullets before you put them into a magazine. Clips did go directly in the weapon in like WW2, but not in modern weaponry. While a layman shouldn’t be expected to know this, someone who spent 30+ years in the military should definitely know this. Definitely hits his credibility a bit.
No matter which top general is saying this. China is not looking for war. This prediction is not based on Chinese MO. Not all countries think of war. The Chinese are on the other side of the globe. They have zero interest in a conflict. They are going to overtake the US by simply by outmanufacturing them. They know it. They will not rush it. They have relatively little conflict in their internal politics. The dont have partisanship. They are relatively monocultural. They have everything to lose by engaging in war. They got back Hong Kong from the British merelythrough patience. Eventually they will unite with Taiwan by just waiting it out. Those who fled mainland China are 80+ years. The two Chinas speak the same language and have the same culture. Chinese infants will live in a one China world.
I suppose Officers are taught different. Everyone knows it's "Two to the chest, one to the head." If you do that you don't need that much ammo. Shocked both my parents after basic, "Didn't realize the Air Force was teaching that now." was my Dad's response.
They are. Officers are issued pistols for deployment , enlisted are not , unless it’s a special circumstance
>by firing a clip at the target I wasn't aware modern handheld guns still used clips. Don't they all use magazines today?
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This is a bit of a misunderstanding of the concept of national debt. It's not like countries are flat out wiring loans to each other these days (in normal circumstances). Governments release debt instruments that people buy on an open market. You have a treasury bond? You're holding a share of national debt of the United States. These come with conditions attached, so it's not like someone can roll up on the treasury with a wheelbarrow of these and say "gib monies".
It's actually Japan but China holds the second largest amount of US treasuries, so yeah. Your point stands. The interesting thing is that China is not buying new treasuries.
If the Air Force has resorted to their sidearms, we lost 🤣
I’m sure he’s been convinced by all the captured communications.
I don't think the Air Force even issues firearms. Maybe he means a salvo of thoughts and prayers?
There are always three news from USA: -School shooting -Police killing black people -Let’s start a war It is impressive how people look after that country and think it is a good place in the world.
Xi xingping says he is the same type of criminal as putin: Xi Jinping Doubles Down on His Putin Bet. ‘I Have a Similar Personality to Yours.’ https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinping-putin-china-russia-relations-11671030896?reflink=integratedwebview_share Figured why they support Russia as unlimited friends and are all going to war because they countries are declining rapidly and this is their window